No matter what the polls say it's President Donald Trump for at least the next four years, according to a professor making the rounds on the news shows this week. He has never been wrong with his predictions of a presidential election in the last 30 years. Allan Lichtman is a popular professor of history today as he explains his method for calculating the presidential election win.
A Trump win is conjured up from the '13 Keys'
"Fox and Friends Weekend" did a segment on Lichtman and his prediction of a Donald Trump win on their Saturday morning show.
He has devised a method, which he calls "13 Keys to the White House." These keys are based on the history of who was voted into the White House through the years coupled with the political climate of the day. Many of these keys have to do with the sitting administration at the time the voting takes place, Lichtman explains.
You can hear his explanation of the "13 Keys" in the video below. He also explains why Trump might just be the one to break away from any traditional political climate seen throughout history, which is what allows his predictions to be accurate. A possibility he could be wrong?
The method calls for a win for Trump
This method entails assigning a "true" or "false" answer to 13 different statements about the present political climate.
Depending on the outcome of the true and false assignments, this history professor from American University is able to correctly hone in on the candidate who will emerge the winner in November. He has dedicated his history studies to the circumstances around presidential elections and a lot has to do with the administration in the White House when folks take to the polls.
He's dropping jaws, but still on track to be president?
Despite the polls indicating Hillary Clinton moving ahead and despite Donald Trump continuing to drop jaws around the nation by making some outrageous comments, Lichtman is sticking to his prediction. His method has been devised by studying all the presidential elections dating back to 1860.
Once his method was created and he applied it to all the presidential elections in history, it correctly indicated the outcome of every single election. He has predicted the winner over the past 30 years of all the presidential elections held during that time before the voting started.
Lichtman is not the only one
According to the Inquisitr, there is a SUNY professor who studies and teaches political sciencewhose track record of predicting the presidential election outcomes is just as stellar. Professor Helmut Norpoth has a perfect track record stemming 20-years of predicting the winner of a presidential election.
Much like Lichtman, he has gone back through history with his method and found that it worked for every election except for the year 1960 when Kennedy and Nixon ran.
He has a 96.1 accuracy rate, which is close enough to Lichtman's 100% accuracy rate for folks to take some notice in these two predicting professors.
Norpoth also predicts Trump will be the next president and gives him an 87% chance of winning in November's election. Norpoth uses a statistical modeling approach when it comes to his predictions. Despite the polls and Trump's less than stellar attitude at times, Norpoth and Lichtman both say it is Trump in November.
@mitchellvii https://t.co/wg1hwPyoRx SUNY Professor "87-99%" Trump wins. His model correct in choosing winner back to 1912, minus 1960.
— LügenpresseVonTrapp (@Anglo_Von_Trapp) October 20, 2016
Will Trump break away from what history indicates?
While on Fox live he was asked if some of the recent comments made by Trump that are causing quite the controversy today might cause him to change his prediction.
While he is not changing his prediction he did say that Trump is different and there is a chance he could cause a change in what is traditionally seen in presidential elections.This could quite possibly upset the apple cart so to speak. But as of today, Trump is the predicted winner because the true and false answers up against Lichtman's 13 keys indicate this is the outcome.