Stock Market experts are divided on the impact of a possible impeachment of U.S. President Donald trump. The world’s top hedge fund forecasts a negative impact on U.S. stocks but positive effect on the price of gold.
Other analysts see a short-term impact on the markets but predict the bourses would eventually recover, not due to any political event, but because the markets are basically solid and good. The issue divides again the nation already split along political affiliations.
Hedge fund believes Trump has 50% chance of completing the first term
Until the firing last week by Trump of FBI Director James Comey, the markets were doing well in spite of a forecast in November of a decline if then Republican presidential candidate would win the election. He won, however, the market did not dip as predicted but instead grew.
However, the Comey dismissal fueled by the FBI investigation into the links of the real estate mogul with Russian officials during the campaign changed things and boosted Trump’s chances of not completing his first term. It led to more voters who disapproved of the president’s performance and triggered a growing call for his impeachment. The markets too have reacted.
Market reaction to impeachment possibility
Although experts say an impeachment has little chance of prospering because of Republican control of the House and Senate, the impact of Trump’s actions is starting to be felt across the markets. CBS reported that on Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 logged a 1.8 percent decline, while the NASDAQ Composite slipped at a higher 2.6 percent.
The possible bloodbath is yet to happen. But if like Trump’s unexpected poll victory an impeachment would push through and succeed, Bridgewater Associates, the top hedge fund in the world, forecast dire results. Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer, and Jason Rotenberg, vice president of Bridgewater, see a correction if Trump would be impeached, and it would result in an 11 percent drop in U.S.
equities.
In turn, based on Thursday’s close, about $2.3 trillion would be wiped off the S&P 500 index. It would leave about $18.8 trillion in the S&P 500. Even European and Japanese equities would lose about 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively. However, gold would likely appreciate by 14 percent.
Decline erased in two days
But Business Insider noted that despite negative Trump news hitting the headlines, most investors are not jarred. Although the largest drop in U.S. stocks was registered last week since November, the decline was largely erased in only two days.
Michael Antonelli, an institutional equity sales trader and managing director of Robert W. Baird & Co., said even if the Trump administration would perish, the market would not plummet.
He explained that optimism for a new president was behind the immediate post-election rally. However, most of the sustained strength is because of good, old-fashioned data. The trader stressed that the movements in the S&P index and the courses are more than just the actions of Trump.
CBS shared Antonelli’s outlook. It cited the market reaction to the Bill Clinton impeachment 20 years ago wherein investors easily shook off bad political news at times when the American economy is in a good shape, similar to today’s situation.
