The korean peninsula is alive and war clouds are hovering over it. The United States has decided that North Korea must be stopped from having nuclear weapons. Perhaps it's a little too late in the day, as this step should have been taken a decade back or maybe even five decades back when China went nuclear. However, Donald Trump has said that there is a real possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula.

The Americans have been itching for a war for some time and they feel that Korea is fertile ground for this. Nobody can ever suggest that North Korea will be able will defeat the United States but the North can inflict terrible collateral damage on South Korea and perhaps Japan.

This will make an American victory over the north of no consequence. Again there is a China factor and in 1950 the Chinese came in on the side of the Korean Army.

Kim Jong's army

The US Army and Donald Trump may feel hat China may approve a strike on the north, but military analysists are not sure. Even if China does not support North Korea in a war, the army of the north is fairly competent. North Korea has over 10,800 pieces of long range guns and an American attack will invite a barrage against Seoul. Thousands of guns will rain artillery shells on the city which is just 38 miles from the LOC. It is estimated that there would be over 100 thousand casualties. In addition, the north also has a standing Army of 1.1 million with almost 4 million in reserve.

This Army does appear motivated but though it may lose, it will ensure that South Korea will be hurt badly.

In the present scenario, one wonders what South Korea will achieve by riding with the Americans . Mark my words, nothing will happen to America, which is safe from Kim Jong's missiles.

Fallicious thinking

Coming to nuclear weapons, nobody is sure how many war heads North Korea has.

Experts estimate that they may have between 10 to 15 warheads and the capability to hit South Korea and Japan . Even if one or two projectiles hit Japan and South Korea it could lead to almost one million casualties, so in effect, the American adventure is like firing a gun from the shoulders of South Korea and Japan. Experts are bewildered as to how these two nations who will suffer the most are going along with the American sabre rattling.

American generals Mattris and McMaster took part in the Iraq war. Their thinking is conditioned by that war. It is a fallacy to think that they will be able to replicate the Iraq war.

World War III

There is a possibility that the top North Korean leadership could be wiped out but that is not the end of the story. They will be replaced by another set of leaders who are not going to give up the policy of Kim Jong. China will never allow North Korea to collapse and the South to take over the north. In such a scenario there is a possibility that if Donald unleashes an attack on North Korea, it would be the beginning of World War 3 and the destruction of much of humanity.

Proper homework required

Philippine president Duterte has understood the situation and asked the Americans to calm down.

War is serious business. If you are a political leader one can understand that North Korea does not have much of a chance of victory but its land forces can fight hard. The biggest trump card with Kim Jong is his strike capability against Japan and South Korea. The American military planners must do their homework properly. It will be a sad event if a nuclear holocaust takes place. Japan and South Korea will suffer and that will not benefit the United States.