One of the constants thus far in the Trump presidency has been the fact that he is well below water in the approval polls and below 40 percent in most of them. Team Trump has dismissed these results, noting that he performed poorly in surveys during the election campaign before winning handily. The president has been the recipient of savage media coverage as well. In any Case, Trump has a reason for some cheer, thanks to a Zogby poll, with a Surge to 45 percent approval. The president is still under water, with 51 percent disapproval but he is no longer catastrophically unpopular.

What is behind the surge in the poll?

First, we have to stipulate that this is just one poll and thus could be an outlier. In any case, Trump seems to be enjoying an uptick among Hispanics, men, and union households. Indeed, if male voters are just counted, more approve of Trump than disapproved. Trump is also getting approval among married voters and the Republican base.

Of the subgroups, Trump’s surge among Hispanics, up 11 points to 42 percent approval to 55 percent disapproval, is the most counter intuitive. The findings suggest that Hispanic Americans are not single issue voters, entirely fixated on immigration, and may not be entirely opposed to measures to restrict illegal immigration.

Much of the explanation may reside in an improving economy.

Not only is the unemployment rate down, but the labor participation rate is up, suggesting that people have started looking for and finding work again. Other polling has suggested that Americans have a renewed confidence in the economy. However, Zogby may be the first that suggests that Trump has started to benefit from an economic uptick.

What the future holds

The future, as they say, is uncertain. With war threatening in Korea, the polls may go either way. Americans seem to favor resisting North Korea’s threats against her neighbors and the United States. That fact suggests that should war break out, Trump may enjoy the “rally around the flag” effect similar to what President George W.

Bush had in the wake of 9/11. However, if things go wrong or if the war drags on too long, Trump could take a severe hit in his approval ratings.

Trump is also in peril because of Congress’ failure to repeal and replace Obamacare and the difficulties surrounding tax reform. The president was elected on the promise to enact specific measures such as these and, if Congress continues not to perform, the president may take a great deal of the blame.