May 18, 2021, is the release of Daniel Kahneman's new book on Amazon, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," which he co-wrote with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. Daniel Kahneman is the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology at Princeton University and the winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Vernon L. Smith for applying the psychological methodology to economic science, particularly in the study of judgment formation and decision-making under uncertainty. He conducted his research as a psychologist, not as an economist.
His first book, which became a world bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, laid out revolutionary ideas about human error and prejudice and how these traits can be recognized and mitigated.
In his new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, he applies these ideas to organizations and entire systems. Daniel Kahneman told The Guardian in a special interview via Zoom on the eve of the book's release.
As The Times noted, the authors of "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" have changed how we think about the world, as they have looked beyond how humans make decisions and organize their lives. Kahneman noted in an interview with The Guardian that there are broader dangers in using AI to augment or replace human judgment: the changes will have enormous implications that are already beginning to emerge. For example, it is becoming apparent that some medical specialties are already in danger of being replaced, especially in diagnosis.
Observations of a Nobel Laureate
Daniel Kahneman is a world-class intellectual whose "Thinking, Fast and Slow" revealed the awkward interaction between the human rational and intuitive mind. As Kahneman himself noted, he has learned never to make predictions, but one thing is already evident to him: massive changes will not happen quietly.
There will be enormous destruction. Because technology is evolving rapidly, humans are more often than not acting linearly and will not adapt quickly to these changes. Therefore, it is evident that AI will defeat human intelligence.
The social media divide
Kahneman has pointed out that even though he knows too little about social media, it is hard not to notice how much of a generational divide.
The problem is that the potential for misinformation has multiplied. Social media has become a kind of new kind of media that, objectively speaking, has no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided there or even over reputation.
"Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" raises issues of systemic noise. It is the central theme of the book. Systemic noise is not a phenomenon within the individual but something that happens within an organization or system, where uniform decisions must arrive. Systemic noise is essentially something more than subjectivity, bias, or error. But to see this noise fully, one must first statistically analyze a large number of cases. Then the person can see it.
