Last year's NCAA tournament featured a few shocking upsets, with the notable occurrence of fifteen seeded Middle Tennessee state managing to defeat two seed Michigan State. Arkansas Little Rock beat Purdue in a 12 vs. 5 game and Yale beat Baylor in the same type of game. College basketball Fans are likely hoping to see more of the same when March Madness starts this season. Here's why it won't happen.
Massive Talent at the Top.
Teams like Kansas, Villanova, UNC, and Gonzaga have already proven that they can beat pretty much anybody they play. And they aren't particularly vulnerable to upsets, as none of these teams has a truly bad loss.
Of course, these are the current projected one seeds. What about the rest? Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon make up what should be an upset proof group of two seeds. Baylor, Kentucky, Florida, and Duke are elite as well. That makes it hard to see any fourteen or fifteen seeds winning any games this year.
Will the Classic 12 5 Upset Still Happen?
The most frequent upset in the NCAA tournament happens when one of the best mid-majors in the country plays against a middling major conference team. Unfortunately for mid-majors, the conference teams on the five line, like SMU, Cincinnati, Butler, and Purdue, are pretty tough. They might be able to pull off an upset, but it definitely won't be easy. And the best mid-major not named Wichita State, Middle Tennessee, is currently projected to be a 10 seed.
That already places a restriction on the ability of a 12 seed to win games.
Where is the Weakness?
This could be the weakest bubble ever. Teams like Illinois State, which would never make the tournament in a normal year, are now considered almost locks for the tournament field. From the six to eleven seed line exist a range of teams that really aren't that good.
But mid-majors will traditionally not be placed in a position to upset these teams thanks to the nature of the committee's seeding.
I hope I'm wrong. The tournament is much more entertaining and interesting with upsets and I would prefer to see a big one than see nothing at all.
