Yesterday's market selloff is indicative of a growing fear of a government shutdown. The chief sticking point in the negotiations to continue the funding is the ongoing immigration debate. It's a fine one to have, but this isn't the right place for it. Democrats (and others who claim to want to protect Daca recipients) will attempt to use it as a maneuver to claim the moral high ground against President Trump. It will only backfire. The move will undoubtedly be applauded by the chattering classes on Twitter (at least for a while), but real people in the real world will suffer as a result.

Checks won't be sent out. Markets will drop. Services that people need won't be provided.

A story Democrats can't be the heroes in

A big reason for President Trump's success, both as a candidate and as president, is his ability to polarize and personalize his battles (this is a trait not unique to him). A government shutdown over DACA is a ripe story for him to tell to the country and especially his base. That story will be that Democrats are fine with seeing American citizens suffer because they prefer illegal immigrants over them.

"DREAMers" are a unique subset of the overall undocumented population. They came here through no decision of their own. Yet, that isn't the important thing. Those details won't matter in the scheme of the story.

What will matter is the perception that American citizens are suffering because Democrats prefer to protect illegal immigrants. American jobs could be cut, and the 401ks of American workers will fall in the market selloff, and all of this for no tangible benefit. Not only would it be bad for Democrats in the short term (a shutdown will be bad for Republicans too, but less), it will also motivate Trump's base ahead of November's midterms.

Anger is a better motivator than happiness. A shutdown over a personal, polarizing issue like DACA will make Trump's base angry and motivated to turn out.

In fact, the groundwork for this story is already being laid by the president and his allies. Trump has been busy on Twitter, saying that Democrats don't care about America's military.

The choice is deliberate, as the military is one of the last well-respected institutions in the country. Meanwhile, Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK) has said that the shutdown wouldn't exactly be favorable for Democrats in vulnerable states like West Virginia or Montana.

Democrats have the weaker hand

Democrats are weakened even further when it's revealed that 70% of Americans favor ending "chain migration" (where previous immigrants sponsor distant relatives for green cards) and the diversity visa lottery (which selects 50,000 people for green cards randomly every year).

Democrats will need to accept that Trump is the stronger party in these negotiations, much as they may detest this reality. Rescinding DACA may have unforeseen economic consequences that require examination.

If the priority for President Trump's opponents is to protect DACA recipients and give them true legal permanency, which both the president and his allies are open to doing, shutting the government down only imperils the outcome they claim to desire.

Opponents of Trump should keep the government running. Additionally, they should focus on results, not moral grandstanding. Failure to do so will harm everyone involved, but especially them. The DACA negotiations can continue after the government is funded. Both sides have a strong incentive to reach a deal, as both parties are the key to what the other side wants, and neither side is asking for anything unreasonable.
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