While there’s no shortage of political pundits pushing the Nancy Pelosi-approved notion that the Democrats will take back the House in 2018, the chances of that actually happening are between slim and none. Some political analysts cite endless deluges of mainstream media anti-Trump rants about Russia collusion as evidence. Others are simply Democrats disguised as journalists mindlessly performing their political duties without regard to reality. Still, more are simply following the political hierarchy of producers and editors that drive "news" cycles.
Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on one’s view, these pundits are in danger of falling down the liberally camouflaged rabbit hole that was 2016 election coverage.
Another Pelosi-led House improbable
Nevertheless, nonpartisan analysts, polling organizations and political nerds alike are becoming increasingly skeptical of gushy stories about Nancy Pelosi leading her heard of Democrats back to relevancy next year. The most recent prognostication of House race ratings published in the bipartisan Cook Political Report is perhaps the most convincing harbinger of what’s shaping up to be a train wreck for Democrats in 2018. While even many Democrats admit they will not take back the Senate - and in fact may lose seats - House races don’t look much better, historical mid-term election trends notwithstanding.
Cook Political Report signals trouble
The Cook report published on July 28 shows that of the most competitive seats, 23 are “Likely” Republican wins while only ten seats are considered “Likely” to go Democratic. To that end, Cook shows a total of 189 “Solid” Republican seats and 175 “Solid” Democrat seats in play, hardly a dynamic forecast for House Democrats when the Republicans currently hold 240 seats and Democrats 194.
Things don’t get better for Democrats in the Cook report when it comes to races that are "Leaning" Republican and Democratic. Twenty-one seats "Lean" Republican while less than half as many, ten seats, "Lean" Democratic, according to the report. In the "Tossup" category, Democrats may find a ray of optimism, as three Democratic seats are considered toss-ups while seven Republican seats could go either way.
Democrats still have no message
One thing political analysts from the left and right tend to agree on is that the Democratic Party should be able to articulate a message to constituents six months after being decimated in the 2016 elections. Amazingly, it can’t, as rank-and-file Democrats have widely rejected party leadership’s “Better Deal” cliché. On the other hand, thanks in large part to Pres. Trump, the Republicans' “Make America Great Again” slogan has resonated strongly with Republicans and Independents. With the political clock ticking and the 2018 campaign season drawing near, the House, like the Senate, is "Likely" to remain under Republican control.
