The GOP thinks they were smart to hide their work on Trumpcare that is an alternative to the House version which the Senators claim to have scrapped. The truth is that no one knows what the GOP Senators have done. But Trump's Washington is no longer a swamp. It is a fetid lake that is filled on a daily basis with more and more leaks.
No secrecy lasts forever
The leakathon that is Trump's Washington is the first of several reasons why the president's health legislation may end in the Senate with no vote or bill sent to the House that will pass.
Leaks will enable opponents of the bill as written to register objections. This will fuel stories of a divided GOP. All that has to happen is that three GOP senators refuse to vote and the bill is toast.
Congressional Budget Office
The mere mention of the CBO is enough to strike fear into many legislators' hearts. This is where the musing of the Senators meets the mathematical heads of an operation regarded as nonpartisan. The CBO has already faulted the House health bill for removing insurance, eventually, from 23 million Americans. They also looked askance at phasing out the expansion of Medicaid which will further hurt the poorest, most vulnerable Americans.
This CBO history gives us the second and third reasons why the Senate bill may be the end of the road for Trumpcare. Reason two is that the CBO could throw out whatever the Senators propose. Reason three is that, whatever the result, the bill will fail if it does not mirror the draconian cruelty of the House bill.
The clincher
The most likely reason the GOP Senate bill will fail may be the result of unconscious resistance to allowing it in the first place. The bill was due to go to the CBO tonight. Now there is a delay. When it gets to the CBO, scoring it could take two weeks. We are talking the end of June. Should conflict come into the open by then, there is every chance in the world that it can and will be kicked, not punted down the road.
It may end up out of the stadium.
The Susan Collins factor
The most powerful GOP Senate voice will be that of Susan Collins, the closest thing to an independent on the GOP side. If she believes the bill is too close to the House bill she will balk. That could encourage angry Democrats to engage in serious stalling. One way or another, the bill could be delayed. As already suggested, a delay could mean disaster -- for the bill, not for those whom it would deny care.
In the real Light Of Day, it may well be that Obamacare is being destroyed by Trump with no net to catch the victims of his scourge. He may be fine with that. The American people? Not so much.