Everyone knew that the Chicago Bulls would be in "tank" mode this season. The first year of the rebuild got off to an odd start with the Niko Mirotic and Bobby Portis punching ordeal, and they started off 3-20. However, Mirotic's return in December helped fuel a string of wins. Even with his departure the young Bulls have beaten some bad teams and even played competitive basketball in some losses to better team behind their young corps of Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn.
Are they still a bad team? Yes. However they are clearly not the worst team in the NBA, which does hurt their lottery chances for a top pick.
The Bulls have 13 games left with their next one tonight against the New York Knicks. Chicago sits in the eighth spot of the lottery with a 9.9% chance at a top-three pick and 2.8% chance at the first-overall pick according to tankathon.com, which is a very reliable tracker for the NBA draft. Even if things go a certain way, it is very hard to see them getting to a top spot in the draft order.
A look at the order
Right now the Bulls are 24-45. They have one less win than the Knicks, who are right next to them in the ninth spot. Two games ahead of the Bulls in the order are the Sacramento Kings with the Brooklyn Nets (pick goes to Cleveland) and Dallas Mavericks both 2.5 games ahead. The current top-three spots are occupied by the Phoenix Suns (six ahead of Chicago), Memphis Grizzlies (five ahead of Chicago) and Atlanta Hawks (4.5 ahead of Chicago).
The Bulls are 4-6 in their last 10 while the top three teams previously listed are either 2-8 or 1-9 in their last 10. Granted, the Bulls have been resting their young corps on and off recently, but catching up to the top spots would not only mean pretty much losing the rest of the way, but the other teams ahead going on big winning streaks.
It is really hard seeing either of those top-three lottery teams even matching the Bulls' win total now (24) at this point. Phoenix and Memphis would have to go 5-6 and Atlanta 4-7 to do that. Plus. the Bulls would have to go 0-13 for the final records to match.
Other teams like the Kings, Nets, Mavericks and Magic are a bit closer.
The Bulls are 3.5 games behind the Orlando Magic for the fourth spot, which may still be hard to reach because the Magic are pretty bad. Because the Bulls have beaten the Mavericks twice this year, that gives Dallas an edge in terms of beating them in the draft order. Sacramento is the one that seems the most possible to beat out at seven, but any higher is not something to put money on.
Where will the Bulls likely end up?
The last 13 games are against a mix of good, okay and bad teams. There are four games which the Bulls could possibly win against the Knicks, Nets, Magic and Pistons. Again, not guaranteed, but it is still doubtful that they'll go 0-13 the rest of the way. Around 27 wins seems like a solid bet to put them down at when it comes to their final win total of the season.
With all of the factors previously mentioned, the Bulls will be between the seventh and ninth spot in the lottery order.
Could the Bulls somehow end up with a top pick? If a team is in the lottery, there is always a chance. Just not a great one. Looking at the projected range of where they likely finish, the chances to get a top-three pick would range from roughly 6-15%. The chance to get the first-overall pick would be at highest roughly 4.4%.
Bulls fans can always hope for a miracle, but odds say their team will be picking at around the seventh spot in the draft come June.
