midterm elections represent one of the most important political events in the United States, considering the way it determines the action power of the executive branch. Over the last few decades, these elections have been characterized by the way people always seem to vote for the opposition party, which definitely highlights the democratic passion of this republic. After all, there’s nothing healthier for a country than a solid separation of powers made by the voters themselves.
In this case, the Democratic Party is the favorite faction to win the midterm elections.
As a matter of fact, recent polls by Washington Post gave them an 11 percent advantage, which many believe could traduce in the conquer of the House of Representatives and even the Senate. While a blue wave seems like the inevitable outcome, America is experiencing such a polarized moment that there’s no longer one national reality. In fact, there are basically two different realities that make this political event something impossible to predict.
Midterm elections: Democrat’s anger
The common denominator in the Democrat’s reality under the Trump administration has been the anger. In addition to the infinite amount of controversies that America has experienced in this presidency, the whole scandal of Brett Kavanaugh has been the one that outraged liberals more than ever and energized the Democratic base.
Therefore, a major victory in the midterm elections wouldn't be surprising.
Considering the way the Democratic Party has become an anti-Trump faction, to sell this political event as a way of manifesting the anger and discontent against him has been an impeccable strategy that could bring the expected results. Basically, liberals have turned the political momentum in their favor, and recovering the House and Senate seems like an easy mission that only a powerful counterpart could prevent.
Midterm elections: Republicans' invisibility
In this case, the counterpart is a Republican base that is also energized after the Kavanaugh scandal and the controversial actions of liberal protesters against his nomination. This was noted by "The Answer," a radio show in New York. The great advantage that this faction has for the midterm elections is the invisible vote, the same that manages to get Donald Trump elected, the Brexit's success, and even the victory of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.
The thing about the invisible vote is that it's impossible to predict by the polls. After all, we’re talking about people hiding their preferences because of the way the country's intelligentsia endorses a candidate or a party and attacks its rival in the most offensive way. That’s the reason why the polls couldn’t predict Trump’s victory or the Brexit’s success. People didn't want to speak their minds and be brutally reprehended for it.
In addition to the fact that this phenomenon is also happening today, the Republicans also count with the anger vote. In this case, it’s all about the fury against the radicalization of a political party that forgot about the working class and embraced identity politics.
Of course, only the invisible vote will show how strong this fury really is. After all, at least in appearances, the Democrats have an advantage on this point.
Definitely, the midterm elections will set a turning point in Trump’s presidency, and will have a major influence in the 2020 presidential election. If the Democrats get the expected results, the next year will show an ever more polarized country. If Republicans come out victorious, Trump will maintain his power and will get re-elected. Basically, it all comes down to which reality manages to crush the other one.
