The mood in Washington is tense, as news has emanated that there is likely to be an arrest or two after the first charges are filed by the federal grand jury in the Russia investigation. One is reminded of the words of the famous detective Sherlock Holmes who, when sensing a lead to a crime, told his friend Dr. Watson “Watson the game is afoot.”

CNN has reported that by arresting one or more persons, the Special Counsel Robert Mueller would create a grave scenario for the White House that could affect Donald Trump and his associates. Trump and his team deny that any wrongdoing took place and it must be acknowledged that so far there is no definite evidence linking the president to any links with Russia.

Unfolding of the tale

This is the beginning of the tale and any arrest will complicate Trump's argument that the allegations of Russian interference are a Democratic plot to harass him and his team. He has claimed this is an attempt to cover up the shock defeat of Hillary Clinton in the election. Significantly, the charges could be the first steps by the special counsel which could lead to Trump’s inner and family circle and who knows - the president himself CNN noted.

The special counsel has investigated many leads, including the business affairs of Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, the actions of Michael Flynn, and also the summary dismissal of FBI Director James Comey. He was fired by Trump through a letter when he was on an official tour.

Trump's reactions to the developments of the arrest will be important. Many times, Trump's conduct has exposed him to a greater risk. The President is becoming increasingly vulnerable and an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll Sunday brought out that his approval rating is 38 percent.

Russian connection

The President is angry and there is widespread speculation that Trump could dismiss Mueller.

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This could trigger a constitutional crisis and leave Republican leaders in Congress skating on thin ice. Trump's supporters like the Wall Street Journal editorial board and some others have already called on Mueller to resign, saying that with his FBI background it is not possible for him to dispassionately investigate the Russian connection.

These questions will dog Trump as he begins his most important foreign trip this month. The battle lines are drawn in Washington but the fundamental fact remains, that there is conclusive evidence that Russia did interfere in the election in 2016 and had a clear preference for Trump.