If you have ever gambled you know that paradise is even odds. Casinos wreck you with just a tiny edge. Based on my admittedly esoteric calculations, I give trump at best a 25 percent chance of surviving October. Even odds material is documented in the following draconian summary from Mike Allen embedded below.

Summarizing what you can derive from Mike, we face objectively the results of Harvey, the fact that Charlottesville is not going away and the truth that Trump's Charlottesville response has added still more precariousness to a divided and fragile administration. This could lead to resignations Trump definitely does not want.

More basic doom

In addition, Trump faces legal liabilities from the Mueller probe that will make the White House's past troubles look like child's play, Allen says. And that is not close to all. Add in political maneuvering Trump is ill-prepared to handle, given his deteriorating relationship with GOP leaders. Allen presages more -- the full collapse of the Trump agenda. We have not even mentioned shutdown and debt ceiling issues.

Then there are repercussions from the huge UN meeting that will make NYC central in September. Finally, there is a potential crisis rising from General Kelly's firm hand meeting Trump's trademark resistance. Already Kelly understands that his control stops with Trump himself. It is a minefield.

Here is the Allen bill of particulars.

To what Allen calls, modestly, a cascade of crises we need to add the factor Allen notes in his closing sentence. There is more but the key is that Trump is sure to buck against the realities we have recounted.

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Donald Trump

Trump is half or more the problem

The odds I have come up with are consistent with what I have maintained for months. Trump will either become a dictator or be out by October's end. He is already functioning as a de facto dictator. The media will not say so but this has to be the conclusion drawn from his Charlottesville unwillingness to wall out Nazism and his pardon of Arpaio which opens the door to police impunity.

Any other president doing the same things would be termed a dictator.

The only reason Trump avoids the moniker is that it is too close for the comfort Americans still dream they possess. Of course, the weakest and most despised will suffer the most. But we are also within our rights to protest even if we know the tricks of avoiding harm.

The 50% man

Trump is half any equation and his actions in the next two Months will be beyond any we have yet seen. Desperation will drive him to the madness we know is there.

Mueller fired or not will be his Waterloo.

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