china has been gnashing its teeth since 1949 when the Kuomintang party led by Chiang Kai Shek after being defeated by Mao Tse Tung, escaped to Formosa. Despite periodical threats, the Chinese have been unable to invade Taiwan for the last 70 years and they never had the military capability to carry out an invasion. The biggest deterrence was the American 7th Fleet and military power.
The present Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, is favorably inclined towards an independent state. Twenty countries, most of them small and inconsequential recognize Taipeh.
To deter any attempt at an announcement of independence, the Chinese have carried out live war drills in the Taiwan Strait. The NY Times has reported the exercises with the aircraft carrier group were held with an idea to intimidate Taipeh.
War games
The war exercises were held when the Formosa president was away on an official visit to Swaziland. President Xi has threatened to use the military option if Taiwan declares independence. China has also reminded the USA of its acceptance of a one-China policy.
Beijing is getting increasingly jittery after changes in US policy with the advent of Trump. The new administration has allowed the latest stealth submarine technology to be sold to Taiwan and Trump has changed the laws by allowing officials to visit Taiwan as well as US warships to dock at Taiwanese ports.
These decisions have incensed China and they had been issuing dire warnings. China has said it will never accept anything less than complete integration of Taiwan with China. Liu Jieyi, the director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said this week, that the exercises were planned with Taiwan in mind.
Reality
The Taiwan Strait was witness to Chinese war games.
Chinese navy warships, airforce fighters, and Chinese marines took part. The island is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait a 90-mile sea channel. It's not a great distance but China doesn't have the military capability to launch an amphibious invasion. Taiwan has built up a strong military with US support and in the event of an invasion, the US is duty bound to support it.
Future
The Taiwan president does not favor a one-China policy and its anybody's guess that at some stage they may declare independence. This will only be on the back of US support and with Trump as the president, anything can happen. President Xi is angry but at present, his hands are tied as China does not have the military capability to take on the USA. China is building its military feverishly to match the USA but president Xi must keep in mind the reality and the well-known adage "if wishes were horses beggars would ride."
