Is someone plotting to dump Donald Trump in favor of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan? Hot Air reports that an outfit called Opinion Access is polling a Ryan vs. Clinton race. Such an effort suggest that someone is afraid that Trump is the nominee that he would blow it and lose by a landslide. Trump has certainly not covered himself with glory in the weeks since Ted Cruz conceded. However, in most polls he is just six points behind Clinton, a testimony to how unpopular and dysfunctional the presumed Democratic nominee. Also, by giving Corey Lewandowski the royal order of the boot at campaign manager, Team Trump has signed that it realizes it is in trouble and is seeking to put the campaign under adult supervision.
Whether or not a coup succeeds or is even undertaken will depend on how the Trump campaign is faring by the time the convention rolls around. If Trump is seen as having righted the foundering ship and is making stride against Hillary Clinton, he will be coroneted, and the #NeverTrump movement will be a footnote in history, If he is still making rookie mistakes and has not started setting up a campaign infrastructure and raising funds, then everything goes.
But the idea of replacing the mercurial Trump with Paul Ryan would constitute a misreading the mood of the Republican base. Not much is wrong with Ryan, who has pushed a variety of budget and tax reform measures during his congressional career.
But he is too establishment not to be a stench in the nostrils of the voters. He has not run for anything and would be hard to sell if put up for the nomination.
The only candidate who could plausibly replace Trump should he be toppled in Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz ran for the presidency and came in second behind the volatile businessman.
He has enough anti-establishment street cred to be acceptable to a large number of voters who want someone to go to the Oval Office and start shaking things up. Ryan’s role would be to pass legislation in the House that President Cruz sends down Pennsylvania Avenue, not create such himself. An attempt to put Ryan up as the presidential nominee would risk a popular revolt that would hand the election to Hillary Clinton with all the disasters that implies.
