In an unfathomable spread, the opening line for the New England game has the Patriots as 16-point favorites over the Texans. This is the largest spread of a post-season game in over 2 decades, but the Patriots will likely cover. Big blowouts are already common over this recent wildcard weekend, so don't be too surprised.
Last match-up
Week 3 of the regular season was the last time these two teams faced off, which featured a 27-0 blowout by the Patriots at home. What makes this all the more impressive is that Jacoby Brissett was filling in for a suspended Tom Brady.
Now that the Patriots have Tom Brady back, playing better than ever, the Pats are going to embarrass the Texans. Don't get me wrong; Brock Osweiler had a good game against the deflated Raiders, especially considering it was his return to the starting role. However, he was playing against an Oakland team notorious for its poor defense. The Pats, on the other hand, have the best scoring defense in the league. So watch for Osweiler to throw a few interceptions, giving Brady and the potent Patriots offense a short field. Couple that with the revamped Patriots redzone defense and you get an utter bloodbath.
Total (44.5)
The Patriots will be pressed to score all the points if you want any chance of going over the total.
The Patriots' defense is great in the redzone, meaning the Texans will have to settle for 3 points rather than 7. The score is projected to be a solid 30-10 win for the Patriots, but if the Texans give up a couple extra big plays, the margin of victory could balloon even more. When one team scores all the points, it is advantageous to take the under.
But if Osweiler continues to be Osweiler-esque, then expect the Patriots to have the ball with optimal starting field position. If there's anything New England pounces on, it's turnovers.
It's looking more and more likely that we're all going to see the Patriots versus the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Question is: can the rookies (Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot) keep up with the veterans of the AFC?
