The 2018 season has officially started for the Baltimore Orioles. One of the first tasks they face is deciding which of their free agents will receive qualifying offers. The belief among Orioles' beat writers is that the team will not give any qualifying offers, allowing the vast majority of their free agents to test the open waters. I doubt Orioles' fans will be upset to see anyone on this list leave, but if you got to be GM for the day, who would you pick to stay?
So which Orioles players are leaving?
Pedro Alvarez, Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Wellington Castillo, Ryan Flaherty, Craig Gentry, JJ Hardy, Wade Miley, and Seth Smith are all now officially free agents.
No, this is not a list of minor league free agents who could potentially fly the coup. The Orioles relied on many of these players to make a run at the playoffs.
Alvarez spent nearly the entire season in AAA Norfolk, leading the International League in games played, at-bats, and total bases. With Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, and Trey Mancini all returning, it appears there is no need for Alvarez.
Tillman, Jimenez, Hellickson, and Miley made up the worst starting pitching rotation in all of major league baseball. After the disaster that was the Jimenez experiment, I don't see any possible reason for him to return. As MASN.com has already reported, the Orioles have reached out to Tillman and Miley about bringing both back on incentive-heavy contracts.
Baltimore is expected to buyout JJ Hardy and Castillo is sure to draw a multi-year contract from another team, at a high price. Gentry, Smith, and Flaherty are all aging contributors. With Austin Hays, Mancini, Cedric Mullins, and DJ Stewart waiting in the wings, the Orioles have many youthful options to fill the void.
That leaves the question, which one player gets to stay?
If I had to pick just one to re-sign, I would choose Chris Tillman. Yes, he went 1-7 with a 7.84 earned run average, but if you look at Tillman's entire body of work, he's been very consistent.
Tillman could not recover from offseason shoulder procedures, and it showed in his performance.
He gave up 24 home runs in just 94 innings after proving unable to hit his spot and keep the ball low in the zone. Looking at a healthy Tillman resume, though, brings optimism.
Between 2013-2016, Tillman recorded 56 wins and 589 strikeouts in 758.2 innings of work.
Of course, Orioles fans have always expected more of Tillman, being the ace of the staff for the last few seasons. That is the problem. He is not an ace pitcher. A healthy Tillman, pitching in the back end of the rotation, will produce quality results and a step towards overall rotation improvement.
As Dan Connolly reported on BaltimoreBaseball.com, other MLB teams will look at Tillman's complete body of work and offer him a substantial deal in a free agent class not ripe with elite arms.
It's your turn! If you could only pick one of these players to re-sign, who would it be?
