NFL week 1 starts on Thursday, and that means it's time to start paying attention to betting lines. These lines have implications for fantasy football, but they also have implications for office football pools. The goal of this article series is to help you win those football pools. Let's take a look at which teams you should be picking against the spread (ATS) in week 1.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-9)
In the opening game of the season, Brady and the Patriots will play the Chiefs at home. Remember when the Chiefs managed to hammer New England in 2014?
This time, the Patriots will return the favor as the Chiefs will have too much to handle with the Chiefs offense.
The Pick: Patriots (-9)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
The starting quarterback situation for the Bills is not yet clear, many of their players were traded, and they're still 9.5 point favorites. That's because the Jets offense is likely to be terrible, and that makes Buffalo massive favorites. Still, 9.5 seems like way too many points for a team that might be starting Nathan Peterman in week 1.
The Pick: New York Jets (+9.5)
Atlanta Falcons (-7) @ Chicago Bears
The Falcons had one of the league's best offenses last year and enter Chicago as big favorites in week 1. It's tough to bet against an offense as good as this one, but I think the Bears and Mitch Trubisky can keep it close at home.
The Pick: Chicago Bears (+7)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Bengals struggled last season after losing both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert were injured. The Ravens have a great defense, but the Bengals offense will do enough to get them the victory and cover the spread in week 1.
The Pick: Bengals (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) @ Cleveland Browns
Are the Browns still terrible? Do the Steelers still have Ben Roethlisberger and one of the league's best offenses? What's the decision here?
The Pick: Steelers (-9)
Arizona Cardinals (-2) @ Detroit Lions
The Cardinals were way worse than the Lions last year, but enter week 1 as road favorites against the Lions.
There's a reason for that. David Johnson is now one of the league's premier players, and the Cardinals have more than enough weapons on both offense and defense to keep the Lions contained.
The Pick: Cardinals (-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-5.5)
It's not yet clear what the Jaguars are going to do with Blake Bortles. Will they hand off to Fournette every play? If so, it's going to be tough for the Jaguars to score any points against Houston. And considering that's Doug Marrone's goal, I'll take Houston in what will be a tough offensive game for the Jags.
The Pick: Texans (-5.5)
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
People are looking at this game and asking why the Titans are favored against one of the best teams in the AFC.
The truth is that the Titans are also an upcoming young team, and will be out to prove it in the first week of the year. I like the Titans to get the win in this one.
The Pick: Titans (-2)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Washington Redskins
It's hard to understand why exactly the Eagles are favored against the Redskins in week 1. Kirk Cousins is better than Carson Wentz, and while the Eagles might have a slightly better defense than the Redskins, they're both pretty bad. I expect the Redskins to win in a close high scoring game.
The Pick: Redskins (+1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins*
*If they play (they likely won't), the Bucs will take advantage of Jay Cutler's mistakes and turn them into a victory.
The Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)
Indianapolis Colts @ L.A. Rams (-3.5)
Without Luck for week 1, nobody is giving the Colts much of a shot. I think that's a mistake, given how bad the Rams offense is. Still, it's hard to believe that the Rams could possibly blow a week 1 opener against a terrible defense and a team playing without its best player.
The Pick: Rams (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
Did the Packers fix their defense? No? Good luck against the Seahawks then. I don't care how good Aaron Rodgers is, the Packers won't be consistently good until they have a solid defense. I'll take the better defense and the road team to win this one in Green Bay.
The Pick: Seahawks (+3)
Carolina Panthers (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
The Panthers were bad last year, but Cam Newton is going to do his best to revert back to MVP form. The Panthers will get back on track for 2017 against a 49ers team that won't be ready for what hit them.
The Pick: Panthers (-5.5)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)
In spite of Ezekiel Elliot's suspension, the Cowboys open week 1 as 4 point favorites. I think that's too many points without Elliot, and the Giants will at least manage to cover the spread in week 1.
The Pick: Giants (+4)
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The return of Adrian Peterson won't be a good one on Monday Night Football. The Vikings have one of the league's best run defenses, and Drew Brees struggles on the road.
The Saints offense will meet its match in the Vikings defense, and the home team will prevail in this one.
The Pick: Vikings (-3.5)
LA Chargers @ Denver Broncos (3.5)
I'm sorry, 3.5? Is that really the line? Philip Rivers couldn't even pass the ball last time these two teams played, so what makes anyone think the Chargers will be able to move the ball now? Stick with the Broncos in this one.
The Pick: Broncos (-3.5)
