The ATP has updated their rankings and, as projected, Roger Federer is the World No. 3 while Marin Cilic is the World No. 6 following the results from the 2017 Wimbledon final. Federer is behind both Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal at this point. However, the Swiss Maestro is on top of Novak Djokovic for the first time in a long time. Looking ahead, one would expect a healthy Federer to overtake top spot soon.

Federer should be No. 1 soon

Federer is not only 1205 ranking points behind Andy Murray. However, from this point onward in the season, Murray has a lot to defend. The World No. 1 didn't do well in Toronto last year, but he did make the Cincinnati final.

Furthermore, he was in the US Open quarters in 2016. Consequently, Murray has some ranking points to defend during the American summer hard-court season while Federer has none to support. That means that any result in Canada, Cincinnati, and New York will see Federer turning a net gain of ranking points. Based on his form of late, Federer has to be considered a favorite to win at least one of the three big tournaments to be played in the next two months. Should he do that and do well in the other two, then it's hard to imagine a scenario where Federer is not the No. 1 with the post-US Open rankings.

Cincinnati the key upcoming event

In fact, it's very plausible that Federer will overtake Murray at the Cincinnati Masters.

Murray didn't play in Toronto last year, mainly because the Olympics in Rio made for a short schedule for players. For that reason, both Murray and Federer will have nothing but ranking points to gain in Canada later this summer. But the Scot did make the Cincinnati final where he earned 600 ranking points.

If, for example, Murray was to only make the quarters this season while Federer wins the title that would see a large enough swing of ranking points in Federer's favor so as to push the Swiss Maestro over top of Murray.

There is more to consider, as the net-gain and net-loss scenarios of the world rankings can be complex.

On that matter, Rafael Nadal is in the mix as well. Furthermore, there are smaller events, and Cincinnati projections aren't possible until the start of that Masters Series tournament is imminent. Of course, it's also possible that Federer might miss or lose out in Canada early, while Murray might win the title as he has done before. But, at present, the Cincinnati Masters appear to be the target tournament for those on the watch for Roger Federer to get the top ranking back. Montreal isn't the target because both Murray and Federer have all to gain in the event. But Cincinnati is where Murray has a lot to lose relative to last year, and Federer has all to gain still.

Nadal can't be ignored, Djokovic can

Don't take your eye off of Nadal at this point either. However, Novak Djokovic seems to be out of the mix during the hard-court season. For instance, he has a title to defend in Canada, meaning he could lose up to 1000 ranking points. The rankings do look closely at the moment, but Djokovic is the odd player out right now just because he is in a defending position in the weeks ahead, not an attacking one. Additionally, there is some talk that Djokovic wants to take a break. What it all suggests is that Federer will be No. 1 with the conclusion of the US Open, if he stays healthy.

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