Iran has been a problem country for the United States ever since the Islamic Revolution changed it from a reliable American ally to an implacable enemy in a matter of months in the late 1970s. The theocratic government in Tehran has been sponsoring terrorism and is embarked on building a nuclear arsenal with which to threaten its neighbors and the United States. The choice with which to deal with Iran has always been cast between appeasement, the policy followed by Barack Obama, or war. However, Amir Basiri, an Iranian human rights activist, suggests that Regime Change may be closer than many people think.

Iranian opposition rallies in Paris

Recently, tens of thousands of Iranian activists, sponsored by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, gathered in Paris to plot strategy and raise awareness for the concept of regime change in Iran. Rajavi suggested in her keynote speech that the Islamic regime is starting to crack, as they are in “disarray” and “paralyzed” as never before. Discontent with the government is simmering just below the surface among the majority of Iranians living under the heel of the theocracy.

The difficulties of regime change

Iran, however, maintains a massive and savage police state apparatus, with the Revolutionary Guards acting in the same role as the SS did in Nazi Germany and the paramilitary Basij available to crush dissent, as they did during the 2009 uprising.

Ordinary Iranians do not have access to weapons that could be used in an armed uprising and have their lives circumscribed by the Islamic Republic. However, an underground exists, tied together by social media. The resistance has thus far been ineffective in moderating the behavior of the regime. Iranians who aspired to freedom were abandoned by the Obama administration, eager to reach a nuclear weapons agreement with the Islamic government.

Trump reconsidering regime change

Some of the American speakers at the Paris event, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former UN Ambassador John Bolton, suggested that the Trump administration has a better understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime. When the next uprising happens, which Rajavi believes will be soon, it is likely to have the full support of the Trump administration.

The ideas would be to spark a popular uprising that is so vast and widespread that the Islamic Republic will not be able to suppress it and hence its hold on power will begin to become less tenable. The goal will be to establish a democratic, secular government that will deal with the world community in a less hostile manner than the theocratic regime has done for the past few decades.