President Trump’s first 100 Days have come and passed and it’s going just as expected. His approval ratings have hit record lows in the past few weeks and he continues to fumble his way through domestic and international politics. With his continued failure at managing the responsibilities of the Presidency, the criticism has come rolling in even from members of his own party. Notably, high-profile Republican senators like John McCain and Lindsay Graham have come out in criticism of Trump’s travel ban, and McCain has himself become a vocal critic of the new administration.

Trump’s popularity among his own party in general also fell by 14 percentage points between March and April, with a majority of men – a demographic Pew Research Center says Trump won by 12 points last November – now disapproving of the job the President is doing.

Donald Trump's base is reluctant to give up on their President

Trump’s supporters are sticking by him: less than 10% of those who voted for Trump in November regret doing so and, according to an LA Times poll from April, his approval rating among those who voted for him is around 85%. In some ways, it would seem that Trump’s chances of re-election are fairly good: the base that got him the majority of Electoral College votes has lost very little strength since November.

Approval ratings amongst Trump supporters don't tell the full story

But it’s important to look at poll numbers in context. Take the Trump voters who don’t regret voting for him, for example. Last year’s election was a different landscape than most presidential elections and voters were driven to one side or the other by different factors.

Time Magazine reports that 47% of Trump voters were voting for Trump because they were against Hillary Clinton, while only 40% said they were voting for Trump because they believed in his policies. Given a less controversial opponent, it is fair to assume that some of those voters would not have supported Trump’s scandal-ridden candidacy.

Of those who do not regret voting for Trump, it is fair to question how many simply are relieved that Clinton did not get elected.

Impeachment is not likely

With several prominent Republican legislators standing up against him and shrinking approval ratings, many have begun to wonder whether Trump may even be impeached before his four years are up. This isn’t likely, however, as it would require heavy Republican support that is just not likely to manifest before the midterm elections or the Democrats to win back control of both the House and Senate, a feat they have not managed since Obama’s first election.

But, with approval ratings among the general public so low, Donald Trump cannot expect to win in 2020 unless he does something soon to turn the tide in his favor. An ineffective and scandal-ridden first term spells disaster for him in the next election.