The presidential campaign only seems like yesterday, but there is another electoral date on the horizon which will soon determine the actions of congressmen and senators. The fate of these individual politicians may well be the deciding factor that will determine the governing of the country in the near future.
The past
On the morning of November 9th last the future of the Republican Party seemed rosy, #Donald Trump had just won what many considered the unwinnable election and the Party had held on to the majorities in both the Senate and Congress.
It seemed that its more conservative wings would finally be able to enact the many plans it held in abeyance while Barack Obama was in the Oval Office. In a few short months these plans have been thrown out the window.
Today
The business become politician entered the White House after very public arguments with some prominent members of the GOP, not only Marco Rubio and John McCain, but also with House Leader Paul Ryan during the run for the top Office.
Hanging over the heads of all involved were also the allegations of Russian interference in the election in favour of the winning candidate which have made other Republicans uncomfortable and has caused worry in many sections of the population. Allegations now under investigation by the country's intelligence community.
Then, with a series of hasty, badly designed executive orders President Donald Trump began a course that set him against other members of his Party.
The order for the repeal of Obamacare without an adequate replacement has been opposed by some Republican senators and congressmen, added to which the order for the building of the border wall with Mexico may well lead a budget battle in both houses.
The first order also led to stormy town hall meetings around the country where Republican Senators and Congressman were attacked by constituents worried that they would lose their health insurance.
Paul Ryan’s proposed replacement announced last Tuesday further fuelled this discontent with some Republicans openly stating that they would vote against the Bill.
As reported by Huffington post, on Sunday Republican Senator Tom Cotton publicly appealed to his fellow Senators to vote against Ryan’s Bill.
Senator Cotton, like other Republicans had understood that there was a danger for the Republican Party on the horizon.
The future
Next year the Senate and Congress will face the midterm elections and Senator Cotton expressed the thoughts of other Republican politicians. The stormy town hall meetings were a clear warning that many of them will face uphill battles due to this issue. In this way they would put at serious risk the Republican majorities in both Houses and particularly in the Senate where it has only a one seat advantage.
This would have two effects on the Trump Administration.
The first obviously would be to risk stalling any laws not finalized before then and blocking future proposals, this would put at risk all the President’s campaign promises.
Supreme Court
On their own these would be serious enough, but the second effect would be the real defeat for the Republican Party; the loss of control of the Senate to the Democrats which would then stall any future nominations for vacancies to the Supreme Court.
This has been the undisguised plan of the GOP for some time and after the refusal of the Republican controlled Senate to even consider Barack Obama’s nominee to replace the deceased Justice Antonin Scalia until after the presidential election it will be easy to foresee the Democrats returning the favour.
The fear of the midterms will be the spoke in Donald Trump’s wheel as the Republican priority will be the Supreme Court and not his agenda. So will begin the real battle between the Oval Office and the GOP.
It will be interesting to see how the behaviour of Republicans towards the Party’s Leader will change as they fear the loss of their seats next year. This future began with Paul Ryan’s Bill and will continue until the midterms.
