A dissident recently expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Cai Xia has predicted that confrontations between the US and China "will only worsen and intensify" unless the Chinese political system changes.

Cai commented in a lengthy interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA), a news organization funded by the US Congress. The part of the interview with the prediction was published on October 21.

RFA noted that Cai, a 68-year-old retired professor at the CCP's Central Party School, had been expelled from the party and deprived of her pension on August 17, 2020.

This punishment for "violations of political discipline" was in response to her critical comments about China's leaders, including a comparison of President Xi Jinping to a "gang boss," RFA recalled. Interviews with Cai, such as one published in the Guardian the day after her expulsion, have indicated that she is outside China without specifying her whereabouts.

The Party vs. the Ruling Elite

Just as it was important to maintain a clear distinction between China and the CCP, it was also important to remember that the CCP and China's ruling elite were not the same things, Cai told RFA.

She stressed, "the US has to separate Xi and' Xi's gang' from the 90 million party members." No one should try to bring about the physical destruction of the CCP, she said, warning, "That will be a bloody massacre."

'More ferocious than Hitler'

The scholar said that rather than becoming more free and democratic with the introduction of a market economy, China's political leadership was now "more ferocious than that of the USSR or Adolf Hitler." The rulers were also now "more deceptive than before," she said.

War in the South China Sea could lead to a coup

China's biggest problems were domestic, Cai said, pointing to the economic hardship now faced by the Chinese people.

This preoccupation with domestic issues explained why the Chinese people had not been affected by the situation in Hong Kong, she said.

A military showdown in the South China Sea "could likely backfire" and provoke a military coup, Cai said, speculating that a military attack on Taiwan might also create "a domino effect" in China. Cai said she believed Xi Jinping wanted "to earn a spot in history" by bringing Taiwan under mainland China's rule.

'Inevitable' mistakes to come

In the Guardian interview, Cai said Xi's unchecked power made people afraid to tell him things he did not want to hear. "Since people don't tell him the truth... he will inevitably make wrong decisions," she said. A "vicious cycle" would result because people would not inform him about the consequences of his mistakes, leading him to make more mistakes, Cai said.
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