President Trump announced on Friday he will not be certifying the Iran Nuclear deal, originally drafted during Obama's administration. By not certifying the deal, President Trump has placed Congress in charge of deciding if any further action on Iran will be taken. This decision means there will be a 60-day period in which lawmakers would be able to impose Sanctions On Iran which were suspended in 2015 as part of the original agreement. This does not remove the U.S. from the deal freezing Iran's nuclear program, but is showing a tougher stance on Iran.
The Iran nuclear deal
The Iran nuclear deal was an agreement between Iran, the EU, and the P5+1, which consists of the permanent members of the UN security counsil -- the U.S., the U.K., Russia, France, and China -- plus Germany. The intent of the agreement was to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons by limiting, among other things, Iran to installing only 5,060 oldest and least efficient centrifuges for 10 years, before the agreement they had nearly 20,000 centrifuges in their possession.
According to BBC News, Low-enriched uranium is used to fuel nuclear power plants, but has the ability to be enriched to the standard required for nuclear weapons. Iran claims they have a right to have nuclear energy, and that their nuclear program is for that purpose only.
The agreement was put in place to allow Iran to have nuclear energy, but restrict their ability to be able to make nuclear weapons.
Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the president is required to certify the agreement every 90 days to ensure that Iran is upholding their end of the bargain. So what does it mean when President Trump refused to certify the agreement?
Trump's Decision
First and foremost Trump's decision to not certify the agreement does not mean the U.S. is pulling out of the agreement just yet. Instead it places it in the hands of congress who now have 60 days to decide whether or not they will re-certify the agreement or pull out and re-impose sanctions which were suspended when the agreement went into effect.
According to the Atlantic, "Declining to certify the stipulations of INARA is a procedural move with no direct or immediate impact on the nuclear deal." If congress does decide to pull out of the agreement and re-impose sanctions on Iran, that doesn't mean the other countries still a part of the agreement will pull out as well.
So far Iran has complied with the Nuclear agreement, and the EU, Russia, China and Germany have expressed interest in keeping the agreement in place. As reported by the Atlantic, Iran has already stated they will continue to comply with agreement even without the U.S.
What happens if the U.S. pulls out of INARA?
There are a few issues which could arise should the U.S. violate the agreement by re-imposing sanctions.
One fear is that Iran does not continue to go along with the agreement once the U.S. pull out. Should this happen, the agreement itself would dissolve entirely, and the world would be in the same place it was in before the agreements. A world of uncertainty and no way of monitoring Iran's nuclear program to ensure they are not making nuclear bombs.
However, should Iran still agree to INARA even after the U.S. pulls out, then the sanctions places on Iran by the U.S. could put the U.S. at odds with the EU who may try to legally protect European companies who conduct business with Iran from needing to comply with the U.S. sanctions. In an interview reported in the Atlantic, David O'Sullivan, the EU ambassador to the U.S., states, "I don't think anyone, frankly, has thought through what they would do if one of [the Iran nuclear agreement's] signatories said they consider themselves no longer bound by the deal."
This leaves open a lot of questions as to how President Trump's decision will affect U.S.
involvement in INARA as well as the fate of the agreements in general.
There are too many scenarios with too many implications to truly gauge the magnitude of his decision. One scenario could very well be that congress does absolutely nothing, and we continue along with the agreement as before. Unfortunately, until congress makes a choice, the world will need to live with uncertainty on how all this will effect future relations with Iran and keeping them from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
