With Republicans managing to increase their number of seats in Congress since 2014, followed by another grab in 2016 and taking the Oval Office, conservatives are reportedly having some difficulty facing angry constituents back home in town halls while on Easter break. This week, there may be some difficulty in beating a Democrat in an election in Georgia to fill a Congressional seat. Republican Karen Handel is up against Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff who according to the Washington Post, happened to capture "the most votes with a groundswell of grass-roots activism and millions in donations fueled largely by antipathy to President Trump."
But the election was forced into a runoff after Handel was unable to reach the 50 percent threshold required to win the seat and only got 19.7.
Ossoff had also fallen short but said that he hopes to get a better shot on June 20. In the interest of what one might expect from the unexpected results, the Post and others are saying that it might be difficult for the Democratic candidate to sustain the kind of momentum he was able to get this time around, which showed him at 48.3 percent of the vote. The reasons for this are due to the history of the district favoring Republicans. In order to guarantee a win, Ossoff would have to overwhelm Handel and Handel could try and reach for President Trump's help but it's risky.
Atlanta's 6 congressional district
It's been reported that no Democrat has won the Atlanta district since 1979. Stuart Rothenberg of Inside Elections was on the PBS Newshour this week after the results and asked why Ossoff could not get over 50 percent.
He said that the district was very Republican and that when Romney was running for president, he did very well there at 23 points. The former holder of the district's seat, Tom Price, had actually won with over 60 percent of the vote. But this district is what Dante Chinni of the Wall Street Journal described as a good district for Ossoff to run in because it's more moderate than the extreme right.
Chinni, who was opposite Stuart in the segment analyzing the election confirmed this by saying that Trump only won by 1.5 points during the last election. He also said that the district is diverse and where the Democrats "are" now, catering to the more educated and high-income voters there. Chinni also said that the district represents the country at large "in terms of the white non-Hispanic population" and in that sense, not very diverse.
This would certainly explain why voters there seem to cater more to Republicans as the party is more in league with white voters. But Rothenberg also said that this was a Republican district but not a Trump district. This plays off of the divisions reportedly going on within the Republican Party where aggressive anti-Trump Republicans are up against the more extreme right. Stuart seemed to point out that the Republicans in this district don't take to Trump's style and some of his agenda, which would suggest that they're likely not entirely anti-Trump if they were pressed to win an election. Certainly, it's been pointed out that Handel has enough time between now and the runoff date to recover and if the Washington Post is right in assuming that Ossoff would have a hard time maintaining interest, he could face a Republican defeat.
The Trump gamble
As noted, Karen Handel didn't bring up President Trump on election night because, obviously, she understands the demographic. The pattern among Trump Republicans is that they're unafraid of grandstanding or taking risks and that they've really only been rewarded for it. But it wasn't until later on CNN that she said she would consider reaching out to President Trump for help. Chinni said that he understood why Handel was reaching out as he represents their party but if Trump were to go to that district, he's likely to help Ossoff win rather than Handel. He said that this was not a district for Trump. Stuart contributed to this point saying that the Democrats are already making their election about a referendum on Trump for Ossoff to already be ahead.
The reporter who wrote the Washington Post article on the district, Robert Costa -- and is now the new host for Washington Week, brought up the election with a panel of journalists on the program. It was mentioned that Secretary Hillary Clinton did well there but that voters are not necessarily friendly to Democrats or Republicans. One question was about Ossoff being more moderate and not as progressive as Bernie Sanders who was traveling around the country, showing somewhat of a contrast of what the Democratic Party could represent down the line. And while it's not clear as to whether this will somehow influence the runoff with Ossoff, for now, it doesn't appear that one is supporting the other.
Robert Costa said that he spoke with Karen Handel and from what he gathered that it doesn't appear those Republicans there are running toward Trump. Kelly O'Donnell of NBC News said that Handel might want him to help her raise funds but not campaign with her.
