A couple days ago I looked at Donald Trump and his betting odds to get impeached with Ladbrokes sportsbook. Russell Wilson helped spawn discussion of the topic as the Seattle Seahawks' quarterback communicated "skepticism about President Twitter's chances of staying in office over the long run" (February 1st, 2017). Ladbrokes made Trump 11 to 10 to either get impeached or leave office before the end of his current term. Another sportsbook called Betfred broke the issue down differently.

What year will Trump leave office?

In a betting line that screams for a discussion of impeachment or resignation, Betfred breaks the issue of Donald Trump leaving office early into years.

"The Donald" is 10 to 1 to exit in 2019, 4 to 1 to exit in 2018, 333 to 100 to exit in 2017, and about 5 to 7 to exit in 2020 or later. The latter betting line is for those that see the current president lasting for his current term or even serving the eight-year maximum. If you converted the odds into implied percentages then it would be a 9.1% chance for 2019, a 20% chance for 2018, a 23.1% chance for 2017, and a 58.3% chance for any time afterward (note: betting odds aren't mathematically sound).

Many might dismiss betting odds as frivolous and in fact they can be. For example shortly after winning the election back in November, Trump was listed among the favorites to win the 2017 Royal Rumble.

But betting odds can also reflect public opinion to a degree for several reasons. Firstly, sportsbooks often respond to betting trends from the public when making their odds and secondly they are trying to entice people to bet by offering odds that "punters" might find agreeable. From that point of view, the implied percentages on Trump leaving office early can reflect on hopes and opinions among a contingent within the general public.

Too much drama to survive?

When it comes to impeachment, all the scandals certainly can't help. It can be difficult to stay on top of Donald Trump and the drama of the day/week/month. One long-lasting storyline involving the president is the Mexican wall and who will pay for it. The ban on Muslim travel has dominated discourse for several days now.

Furthermore, there is the perception that the potential for nuclear war is increasing.

As of Friday the most recent drama has to do with Kellyanne Conway and an allegedly-fabled Bowling Green Massacre. Conway used the phrase, possibly incorrectly, to describe a situation in Kentucky from several years ago. In a tweet from Friday morning from her verified account she claimed that she meant to use a different word, as per the tweet below. However, that Trump and those surrounding him have little credibility with the public and even the mainstream media is something that might manifest into problems for the Trump presidency when it comes to his long-term survival in office.
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