After trading in a range between roughly $30 and $60 for the past two years, observers are concerned about appearances that crude oil may be headed for a leg down, with headwinds coming from several fronts, including the 100 percent certainty priced into bond markets that U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen will raise interest rates a meeting of the Open Market Committee next week, an increased likelihood that further rate hikes will occur through 2017, and supply coming online as a result of President Donald Trump's pro-energy agenda.
Eric Chemi with CNBC's Trading Nation noted that crude oil for April delivery fell below $49 on Thursday, but that stocks managed to "hold up." Oil later recovered and traded near $49.51 at 6:30 p.m ET. Chemi asked guest Ari Wald, with Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: OPY), about the apparent divergence and how investors should manage it.
Analysts see little correlation between oil, stocks
Mr. Wald stated that he isn't "very concerned" about the dip in oil, as it relates to the equity market. In contrast, he feels that "in the long run" the crude oil markdown could be a "positive" development. The technical analyst stated that historical precedents suggests that stocks don't tend to be affected by the price of crude oil, unless it's "very high." He stated that the lowest "forward performance" in models was observed when prices were high.
Wald said that the dip in oil prices may be removing a potential "headwind" from the stock market.
Over the past 12 months, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude has increased by about 28 percent, compared with a gain of near 19 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Max Wolff with 55 Capital stated that the stock market has traded in a manner detached from "macro fundamentals," with the economy performing in a "lackluster" fashion.
He described it being difficult to find "solace" in the fact that economic indicators appear stable, noting that a market that went up with no fundamentals can come down with no fundamentals, as well.
Oil price dip may benefit stock market
"Copper is a good economist. At least better than the real economists often," Max Wolff shared some wisdom with CNBC's viewers.
He agreed with Ari Wald about a seeming low correlation between the stock market and the market for crude oil. He expounded on the current Oil Price drop, with his analysis pointing to a more likely correlation with the pro-fossil fuel policies of the Trump White House, which looks as though it has the potential to cause a "spike in supply coming online."
Further, Mr. Wolff added that rising interest rates are likely to "put some commodity pressure" onto a narrative of a weakening Chinese growth. Ari Wald speculated that a "range bound" market for commodities could coincide with a bull run in stocks, and noted historical precedents.
