Going into the 2018 MLB season, Fansided had the New York Mets projected to win 81 games with the Yankees while the Yankees total was set at 94.5. The Mets have gotten off to a great start while the Yankees have been so-so out of the gate. Is it possible the Mets might win more games than the Yankees this season? Yes, it's possible, but as in almost every season and with almost every team, a large part of the outcome depends on the health of the starting pitching.
The band is back together again, but for how long?
The Mets starting rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steve Matz and Zack Wheeler are actually in the rotation at the same time for the first time in years.
Jacob De Grom has been the most consistent starter for the Mets over the last few seasons and is the anchor of the rotation. Noah Syndergaard has the most electric stuff on the staff. If healthy, he should be good for at least 15-17 wins this season.
Matt Harvey has struggled since an excellent 2015 season. It's hard to project a full return to his glory days based on recent history. Steve Matz has a high ceiling but has never won more than nine games in an MLB season. Zack Wheeler last had a good season in 2014. Taking an overall look at the Mets rotation makes it seem unlikely all five starters will be effective all year.
And more pitching question marks
The Yankees aren't without their own question marks in their starting rotation.
Luis Severino is coming off a nice 2017 season, going 14-6 with an ERA of 2.98. He forms the start of a nice rotation, but after that, things get dicey. CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Sonny Gray all have had injury issues in recent seasons. Look for the Yankees to scramble for starting pitching as the season wears on.
The Yankees have possessed an extraordinary bullpen in recent seasons but look for a drop-off this season.
Aroldis Chapman is still very good, but no longer unhittable. Chad Green has started before and may be asked to do so again.
Is the Yankees offense too one dimensional?
The expectations for the Yankees offense are exceedingly high. When you have Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, you can expect a lot of home runs.
You can also expect a lot of strikeouts. The Yankees lineup, minus Greg Bird, at least until May, is right-handed heavy. Look for their offense to underperform expectations a bit.
Brett Gardner is an excellent defensive left fielder but loses something in the center field. The Yankees defense might reflect that.
The Mets look mediocre in the field and at the plate
The Mets signed a couple of free agents that could give their offense a bit of a boost in 2018. Todd Frazier has become a home run or nothing guy but provides serviceable defense at third while providing some power. The same could be said for right fielder, Jay Bruce.
The bottom line is
While I expect the Yankees to win less than 94 games and the Mets to win more than 81, I still look for the Yankees to win more than the Mets. It will be closer than originally thought, however.
