Roger Federer didn't have much trouble with Roberto Bautista-Agut on Friday. The Swiss Maestro advanced through the tournament's quarterfinals, defeating the Spaniard 6-4, 6-4. Bautista-Agut is now 0-7 against Federer and still having never won a set against the Swiss Maestro in all of their matches. Meanwhile the win keeps Federer's draw alive in Montreal, and it looks very promising heading into the weekend.
Federer will face Robin Haase
Next up for Federer is Robin Haase, a player with few career highlights outside of the current tournament. Haase defeated Diego Schwartzman on Friday to advance to the 2017 Rogers Cup final.
Federer will enter the semifinal match as a huge favorite to advance to the championship this Sunday. For Haase, the match represents a career opportunity as the 30-year-old has never made a Masters Series final. Furthermore, Haase has a chance to crush his career-high ranking this weekend, although getting through Federer to do that makes it improbable.
Should Federer win their match and the final, he would still remain the World No. 3 spot on Monday. He can't quite catch Nadal in the rankings with the results from Montreal, even with the Spaniard having gone out on Thursday night. But if Federer wins the Rogers Cup, he will be just ten points behind Nadal heading into Cincinnati. The Spaniard actually has 90 points to defend at the Western & Southern Open.
That will make Federer the favorite to be No. 1 after Cincinnati, should the Swiss Maestro claim the Montreal title.
The post-Cincinnati situation for top spot
Federer and Nadal are both likely to outrank Murray when the August 21st rankings come around. The Spaniard is guaranteed to do so as Murray has pulled out of Cincinnati.
In Federer's case, if he wins the Montreal Masters he will be guaranteed to outrank Murray as well after the Western & Southern Open.
If you were to project results that would guarantee that Federer gets to No. 1 at this point, it would still be a title in Montreal and a title in Cincinnati. However, the situation changes with the fortunes of Rafael Nadal.
If the Spaniard regroups for the Western & Southern Open, the World No. 1 ranking would hang in the balance. With Federer likely to beat Haase on Saturday and then probably win the final, the Swiss Maestro would be in a position where he would need to outscore Nadal in Cincinnati. That would mean advancing further in the draw than Rafa.
If Federer suffers an upset on Saturday or Sunday in Montreal, then the situation changes quite a lot. However, most would have him making at least the final if not winning the tournament outright. The tournament still has Alexander Zverev in the draw. However, the German may be tired if he reaches the Masters Series final having won Washington last week. At the time of writing, Zverev still needed to win his own quarterfinal match.
