It's not every draw where the World No. 1 ranking is on the line. However, there are scenarios where Andy Murray loses the top spot with the August 13 rankings, the rankings that will reflect results from the 2017 Rogers Cup in Montreal. Currently, the Scot has been ranked No. 1 for what will be 40 weeks come Monday. But if Rafael Nadal wins the Rogers Cup, makes the final, or simply makes the semifinals then the Spaniard will overtake the top spot. With a challenging draw to the semis, Nadal looks like he will have to work hard to earn the top spot on tour.
Borna Coric potentially tricky for Rafa?
Nadal, as the tournament's top seed, has a bye through the first round. He will likely face Borna Coric in the second round and there is some mild hiccup potential for the Spaniard there. Coric is 2-1 against Rafa with two wins over the Spaniard on the hard-court surface. However, Coric's wins over Nadal came at times in his career when Rafa was below par. If anyone is below par right now it's Coric, who entered this week 14-16 this year and with losses in the early rounds of four straight tournaments. This is a player who is still just 20- years-old, however, he also seemed to have more potential a couple of years ago.
Nadal could face Isner of del Potro
Nadal shares a draw to the quarters with 14th-seeded John Isner. The Spaniard is 6-0 against the American, including a 2-0 record on the hard-court surface. Furthermore, Isner withdrew from Washington last week and there is a possibility that he is not 100%. It may be Juan Martin del Potro that goes through to the third round to face Nadal instead of Isner.
Del Potro is nowhere near his best tennis right now. However, he is 5-8 against Nadal on head to heads over the years. That includes two straight wins, one of which came in the Rio Olympics last season. If the former US Open champion comes out strong then there will be all to play for in the third round for Nadal.
Raonic and Goffin possible in quarters
The Spaniard shares a draw to the semifinals with both David Goffin and Milos Raonic. The latter is Canada's best hope in the tournament, although Raonic is also a player that has not had his best season. Goffin enters the tournament well rested, but in a bit of a slump following the foot mishap he suffered at Roland Garros. A quarterfinal against either Raonic or Goffin should still be tricky should the match-up take place.
Nadal doesn't need to win his semifinal to get to No. 1. However, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is on Nadal's half of the draw. Tsonga, seeded eighth, received some great news this week. He did not project to a top-eight seed a week ago, but following the withdrawals of Marin Cilic, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka in recent days Tsonga's ranking of 12th has made him a bye-worthy player.
If Nadal is not at his best, Tsonga is the player on the top half of the draw most likely to make the final. He is well rested, he has won the Rogers Cup before, and he has three titles this season, two of which came on the hard-court surface.
Who Nadal will play is a matter of speculation. But the draw as it is, his chances of being No. 1 on August 13 looks like a 50/50 thing. Of course, a lot depends on how strong he comes out in Toronto. After a disappointing Wimbledon tournament that saw him lose in the fourth round, he can't be considered a lock for the semifinals this week. He does, in fact, have his work cut out for him in the week ahead.
