Kyle Edmund enters the 2017 Rogers Cup in Montreal, Canada with a 5-10 record at the Masters Series level over the course of his career. The British player is the only UK national in the men's singles draw this season following the withdrawal of Andy Murray a short time ago. Looking at Edmund's draw and his history in the Masters Series events, his ceiling appears to be the third round in Montreal this season. To make it further than that would mean that something shocking would have to happen with Roger Federer, the tournament's No. 2 seed.
Edmund vs. Ferrer preview
Beating Federer is one matter, but Edmund certainly won't be able to look further than his first-round match. The Brit has drawn David Ferrer in the opening round, a player that recently won a title on the ATP Tour. Ferrer was the last man standing in the Bastad draw a couple weekends ago, winning the 250-level tournament in Sweden. It was the first title in roughly two years for the Spaniard, perhaps hinting at some late-career momentum as players prepare for the season's home stretch. The two players are 1-1 against one another although Ferrer's victory came via retirement. Given Ferrer's age and that title-winning form is more of an exception at this point in his career, the Edmund/Ferrer match looks like an open one.
Will Jack Sock be tired after Washington?
If you were to project a second-round opponent for Edmund, assuming that he beats Ferrer, most might mention Jack Sock. The American is seeded 15th and he owns a recent victory over Milos Raonic. However, therein lays some of the problems with Sock right now. His victory over Raonic came in Washington's quarterfinals recently.
That sets the American up to play possibly all through this weekend. Sock doesn't get a bye in Montreal and, if he makes the second round there, he would have to be much more fatigued than most players. It could be that Edmund's toughest early-round match is Ferrer and that Sock's presence near Edmund in the draw might actually work out in the Brit's favor.
However, at this point, Edmund appears to have a big stop sign in the third round. Roger Federer is the high seed nearest to Edmund. The Swiss Maestro will get a bye through the first round with a Wednesday match against either Vasek Pospisil or Peter Polansky. There isn't a player there that looks poised to stop Federer's train right now. That means that if Edmund is to make the quarterfinals the road will almost certainly have to go through Federer. Given Federer's form this season, that's a good enough reason to feel pessimistic about Edmund's chances of doing well in Canada.
The Brit is still looking for a breakthrough tournament at the Masters Series level. Thus far he has never survived the round of 32 in any main draw at the 1000 level.
If he has a chance of going deep in Montreal, it rests with Federer playing well below par. The Swiss do have two losses this season, both to players ranked outside of the top 100 on tour. However, heading into the 2017 Rogers Cup, Edmund's potential appears to be the round of 16. That in itself would be no small accomplishment given that he's not made it that far in the Masters Series yet.
