Several weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills still had a shot at the top seed in the AFC. Unfortunately, a loss to the New England Patriots ruined that dream and now the best the Bills can hope for is the 2nd overall seed in the AFC. The Bills currently sit at 10-6 and are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East, so a win over the Jets would guarantee a home playoff game for Buffalo. However, there is a scenario where Buffalo can get the second overall seed.
Help from Kansas City (11-5) and Cincinnati (10-6)
For Buffalo to become the 2nd overall seed, they'll need help from the Chiefs and the Bengals.
The Chiefs play on the road and Denver and would need to lose to the Broncos. The Bills would then pass Kansas City based on their head to head win over Mahomes earlier in the year. However, even if the Chiefs lose, the Bills would still need the Bengals to lose against the Browns in order to secure the 2nd overall spot. If the Bengals do beat the Browns, they will become the 2 seed if Kansas City loses to Denver, thanks to their better AFC record than Buffalo. As the 2 seed, the Bills would likely play against the Chargers or the Colts, depending on who wins the game between Los Angeles and Las Vegas on Sunday night. If the Bills do not advance from their current position, they would likely play New England at home in the 4 vs 5 game.
Why Buffalo (10-6) is likely better off as the 4 seed
Buffalo fans should be nervous that the Bills might have to take on the Colts in the playoffs this year. Buffalo got hammered by Indianapolis 41-15 at home. Because of this, they should be hoping Jacksonville simply knocks them out in week 18 before they can make it in. However, it is likely that Indianapolis wins, and that would land the Colts the 6 or 7 seed in the AFC, assuming the Patriots beat the Dolphins.
The Bills might have lost at home to the Patriots, but that was in terrible windy weather and Buffalo proved they could handle Mac Jones on the road in New England. Sean McDermott would be happy to host a first round playoff game to get revenge on New England in Buffalo.
A Better Second Round Opponent for Buffalo
If the Bills do meet the Patriots in the first round, their second round opponent would likely also be easier to handle.
Right now, the Titans are slated to be the top overall seed in the AFC and they will retain that title as long as they don't lose to the Texans. The Bills have already proven they can hang with Tennessee, even with Derrick Henry in the starting lineup. The Bills lost 34-31 on the road in week 6 and Josh Allen had a chance to win the game on 4th down near the end. Also of note is that Bills fans can take over Nashville if they want to, and this game would certainly be no different.
If this matchup did happen, that would likely leave Kansas City and the Bengals against each other, and Joe Burrow already beat Patrick Mahomes on the road.
AFC Championship
The Bills would likely avoid the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs until the AFC Championship game.
The games prior give other teams a chance to knock out the defending AFC champions. If that doesn't happen, the Bills will get another shot this year. Josh Allen already showed he can pick apart Kansas City's defense with 315 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in a 38-20 win over the Chiefs. It seems counterintuitive, but Buffalo's likeliest path to a Super Bowl is from the 4 seed slot and the Bills should be hoping that nothing changes on Sunday other than the Colts being eliminated from the playoffs.
