Rod Rosenstein was always a problem for President Donald Trump. Since the moment he appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller to be the man behind the Russian investigation, it was clear he was going to be a controversial figure. Now, soon after the New York Times reported he allegedly resigned, the White House is making efforts to prevent a political cataclysm that could have unpredictable consequences.
Logically, the main intention is just to get some time to make the political calculus - something extremely necessary considering the damaging reports some outlets published over the weekend.
Reports suggested Rod Rosenstein has been playing the role of a destabilizing agent with a coup d’état as his primary goal: The biggest political hit against a democratically-elected president.
Rod Rosenstein’s dismissal would open the Pandora’s Box if it happens tomorrow
For many people, this information confirmed that he is part of the so-called “resistance.” The aggressive faction of the deep state that is trying to sabotage Donald Trump’s presidency. Though this is probably a very good reason to fire him, the truth is that the White House announced that the world would know his fate tomorrow. However, it can be said that Rod Rosenstein is a dead man walking and just the date of death remains to be defined.
After all, discarding a resigning or a congress impeachment, it is almost politically impossible to fire him at this moment. To do this, Trump would have to go against the Republican Party, his advisers, and even the majority of the American people. Because believe it or not, almost every single poll has been favorable to the Mueller investigation.
It's the delicate element that the president will destabilize if he decides to take the aggressive option, just six weeks before the elections that could determine the future of his administration.
Of course, Trump has always been characterized by his unusual unpredictability, meaning that he is capable of taking this bold step.
Nonetheless, this would guarantee a blue tsunami that in the worst case scenario could end in an impeachment process that would sink the US in unprecedented chaos. It would be a unique constitutional crisis that would set a turning point in American history.
Rosenstein could be fired after the elections…or re-election
Getting to this point, the most likely scenario is that Donald Trump will wait for the end of the midterm elections to fire Rod Rosenstein. Yet, this also seems like a difficult move considering that Republicans would need to get a good result in this political event: A very significant achievement that not even the most optimistic conservatives are expecting.
After all, almost every poll shows huge possibilities for the Democrats to conquer the House and the Senate.
Logically, this would make the opposition stronger than ever and will make the president suffer every wrong move he makes. Which brings the other chance Trump has to fire him: to run for reelection and make his campaign focus on the threat of the deep state and the resistance.
If that narrative convinces enough people and he gets re-elected, then he could fire Rod Rosenstein without getting too much backlash. Of course, any of these possibilities depend on the political calculus, meaning that anything could happen if the unexpected kicks in. It's a phenomenon that seems to be the common denominator in the era of Donald Trump.
