President Donald Trump is invariably right with his assessments of the terrorist scenario in Europe. One can recollect that he had said Sweden is rife with Islamic terror. The Swedes made fun of him but were soon eating crow when a string of attacks in Stockholm by radical Islamic terrorists took place. Now a Terror Attack has taken place in the heart of Paris when a motivated Islamic gunman pulled the trigger and two persons, including a police officer, were shot dead. President Trump said the attack will "have a big effect" on the French election.
He is right, as the terror attack just before the first round of the Presidential Election will change the perception of the French voters. They feel they are under siege and an attack in a safe district of Paris is not the best way to instill confidence in the electorate. The person to benefit the most from this attack is Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right National party.
Terror attacks
France has been the epicenter of terror attacks in West Europe. Most of the terrorists have been homegrown French citizens who have obeyed the call of ISIS. The group led by Al-Baghdadi has claimed credit for the attack. The attacker was shot dead, but this is a small consolation to the masses who feel threatened.
The far-right candidate Le Pen has seized the moment and condemned the attack. She has raised the temperature by calling for the closure of all mosques and deporting those Muslims who are in the record books of the police or under surveillance. She is also not in favor of the EU and would like France to leave the union. She has called for France to get back its borders.
State of emergency
France is under a state of emergency for many months.This has not, however, stopped the terror attacks. One reason is that France has one of the largest Muslim minorities in Europe, behind Russia and Germany, respectively. This community has not fully integrated with French culture. Donald Trump has not stated it explicitly, but he would favor a win by Le Pen. Her ideas are pretty close to his.
Despite the terror attack and the groundswell of support for her, winning the presidential election looks a tall order for Le Pen. In Holland, despite all the hype, the far right candidate Gert Wilder failed to win a substantial number of seats.
Future
Donald Trump is a man with an uncanny sense of timing. His comments on the terror attack in Paris cannot be dismissed out of hand. One has now to wait for the election result and see if this attack helps Le Pen to surge forward. But even if she loses, she would remain a formidable figure.
