A lot of things have been happening while the Russian hacking of the election conspiracy theory has been drowning out everything on cable news. First, the House voted to repeal the Dodd-Frank Financial Regulation law. Now, according to the Hill, Senate Republicans may be about to settle on a compromise that will repeal much of Obamacare.
What is happening in the Senate
When the House version of the Obamacare repeal bill passed, the betting among the political chattering class was that it would be a long time before the Senate would pass its own version of the bill (if at all).
Obamacare, it was said, was getting more popular. Senate Republicans were hopelessly deadlocked between conservatives and moderates. The Democrats will cheerfully stand on the sidelines and snipe. The Republican majority was too slim. Nothing, therefore, would get done and Obamacare would go on and on.
However, it looks like the two Republican factions may be able to strike a compromise on the main sticking point, federal government subsidies for Medicaid expansion -- one of the features of the affordable care act. Many states wisely refused the deal, noting that the subsidies were only temporary and that they would be left with the bill in the out years. Some states did take the deal and pad their Medicaid rolls.
Moderate Republicans represent some of these states and were reluctant to end the subsidies too soon.
The compromise will simply lengthen the period during which the subsidies will be allowed to expire, easing some of the pain and allowing states and the federal government time to come up with cheaper, more market-oriented alternatives.
If the compromise holds, the Senate version of Obamacare repeal could happen before the end of June.
What happens next?
What happens next with the effort to reform Health Care Reform depends on how much can pass under reconciliation, therefore requiring only 51 votes to pass. Sen Ted Cruz, R-Texas, thinks he has a way to be done with health care reform, Repeal and Replace, all in one bill.
The features in a replacement bill include buying insurance across state lines, association group insurance, and medical savings accounts.
The conventional wisdom suggests that neither of these reforms would pass with the Senate parliamentarian and therefore would have to pass separately with 60 votes, thus needing Democrat support. However, Cruz thinks that if Vice President Mike Pence presides over the Senate during the Obamacare repeal and replace debate, he could declare all of the provisions germane for reconciliation. Then, the Affordable Care Act would be on the ash heap of history.
