Since the U.S. military attack on a Syrian airbase in early April, various commanders who were involved in the plan had reportedly weighed the options beforehand to see how the various adversaries could retaliate. The concern over the past several years since the U.S. had made its redline statement via President Obama, should military force be used, was over how Russia would respond. Now that the U.S. stands in the same predicament within a similar situation today, the view still stands that some form of retaliation will come. Russia has reportedly been very livid about the attack and though they've been at the negotiating table with the U.S., there are very little signs to indicate that they are going to do as the U.S.
has demanded, which is to pull their support away from Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Russian retaliation so far
Blasting News reported soon after the cruise missile attack on a view that the Russians allowed the U.S. to take action against the Syrian airbase after they had been notified ahead of time through a special communication system. This comm system was established for both the Russians and the U.S. to engage with where they were told that the attack against the al-Shyrat airbase was coming, but that Experts said that they had not warned the Syrians. The result was the destructions of 20 jets and the deaths of 6-7 Syrian soldiers. So far, the only retaliation from the Russians has been through a tense meeting with U.S.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his Russian counterpart, with Russia blocking votes to hold Assad accountable for war crimes on the UN floor.
Proxy wars in Syria and Iraq
The fear during the Obama administration was not just about getting involved in another war in Syria but in risking to go to war with Russia, as they have been helping the Syrian regime strike opponents on the ground to prop up Assad.
The Russians had reportedly made some threats to the U.S. last year by saying that they would strike U.S. aircraft in the air if they took any action against the Assad regime, but so far this has not happened. What has reportedly happened, however, is that the Russians have removed themselves from the established communication system with the U.S.
At the same time, commanders have suggested that a direct war with Russia would be unlikely and that the Russians would likely attack the rebels that the U.S. is supporting on the ground. Aside from the airstrikes on Aleppo which killed civilians and targeted rebels last year, there hasn't been any attacks reported on the ground since the cruise missile strikes.
Its also been said that attacking the U.S. would be unwise for the fact that the United States have allies in the area. Many of these nations are currently already part of the coalition in Iraq and in Syria, such as Saudi Arabia. Similar to the current war in Yemen -- as with many wars in the past -- any attacks against the U.S. would have to be via proxy utilizing something like the Iranian forces in Iraq who are helping the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against ISIS.
Iran's military standing in Syria has been to also help the Assad regime and so they could respond to strike U.S. forces and/or forces in Iraq, a situation which has been stable so far. Blasting News recently reported on the argument over what Syria's future would be further down the line and certainly, their involvement would create a new and unanticipated problem in the region.
