Donald Trump won the presidency on Wednesday morning following the Democratic party's defeat. Protests have broken out, #Calexit is a thing (a hashtag for California secession), and a #proudtobecanadian hashtag arguably now has less to do with Canada and more to do with not being American.
Many of those that backed Hillary Clinton to win the presidency with betting firms lost a bundle. Yesterday I researched the odds well ahead of the polls closing and found that huge sums were being bet on Clinton, something that actually sold me on her chances of winning the election (#oops).
Now that the election markets have ended one sportsbook, Paddy Power, has released odds on how Donald Trump's reign as president will go.
Will Trump build wall between USA and Mexico?
Is Donald Trump outlandish with his campaign talk or serious? If he is serious that still doesn't mean that he can simply fulfill his election promises with as much ease as turning on a lightswitch. According to Paddy Power sportsbook, Trump is an underdog to build a wall all along the Mexican border, priced at 4/1 to do so.
On the matter of impeachment, talks of it happening to Trump have already begun. The president-elect takes control of The White House with some already-existing legal troubles. Robert Sobel covered them in an article from November 9th entitled "Donald Trump could be impeached upon inauguration for fraud and racketeering, report." The odds with Paddy Power imply that the wall all along the USA/Mexico border is more likely than impeachment, the latter set long at 8/1.
Don't bet the super-duper long-term stuff
Whether Trump will be impeached and/or whether he will build a wall are things that remain to be seen. For certain, one thing politics has taught us this week is that predicting matters is not simple. Most thought that Clinton would be president, however that's not how things played out on Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning.
When it comes to the odds, I've written about the topic of betting extensively for years now and one thing I advise is not to gamble on the really long-term bets. These are betting markets that won't be resolved for four years, meaning anything you punt will be locked up for that long. If you lose, then you kiss the bet goodbye, but even if you win you're waiting until 2020 to get your money and return back.
