Roger Federer is considered the betting favorite for the 2017 Us Open, a tournament that will start on Monday. The Swiss Maestro has not won the title at Flushing Meadows since 2008, however, he has won two Grand Slams so far this season. At the Australian Open, the other hard court Grand Slam, Federer ended a seven-year title drought from Melbourne Park. If he is to end a nine-year drought in New York, then Federer will have to survive an early-round draw that includes Frances Tiafoe in the first round.
Tiafoe recently beat Alexander Zverev
Tiafoe made some headlines earlier this summer when he defeated Alexander Zverev in the second round of the Cincinnati Masters.
Zverev himself had just come off of two title runs in Washington and Montreal. Those titles served to highlight how big the upset was, however it's still possible to overstate the significance of Tiafoe beating Zverev. After all, the German had played 10 matches in a short time frame and was ripe for an upset due to fatigue. Tiafoe wasn't able to back up his upset of Zverev as he went out shortly thereafter to John Isner. That said, Federer could still have drawn an easier first-round opponent.
Youzhny, Verdasco, and Lopez possibly ahead
Looking ahead for Federer, if he survives the first round, he would face either Blaz Kavcic or Mikhail Youzhny. Neither appears threatening at this point, including two-time former US Open semifinalist Youhzny.
The Russian's last hurrah appears to have been four years ago now when he made the 2013 US Open quarters. Fading on tour, even when Youzhny was at his best he wasn't able to beat Federer. The Swiss Maestro currently carries a 16-0 record against the Russian.
The seeded player nearest to Federer is Feliciano Lopez. However, Andrey Kuznetsov and Fernando Verdasco are also in this section of the draw.
The opening three rounds cannot be called straight forward for Federer as a result. He has the tricky first-round match, perhaps a routine match in the second round, and then what will likely be a tough challenge in the third round. There were issues with Federer's back after Montreal. The competition for Federer in the first week is good enough that if he has any ailments, they could be exposed.
Kyrgios and Querrey loom next weekend
The fourth round, if Federer makes it that far, promises to be a strong test. He could face either Nick Kyrgios or Sam Querrey. Both players make the short list of favorites not named Federer or Nadal. While one of Kyrgios or Querrey may fall in the early rounds it's hard to picture neither of them making the fourth round. Accordingly, if Federer makes the middle round he will almost surely have to beat a strong player.
Federer shares his quarter with Dominic Thiem. That is fortunate for the Swiss Maestro because Thiem simply isn't adept on the hard court surface. If Federer makes the quarterfinals then it's very possible that he would face someone besides 6th-seeded Thiem.
When you look further than the Austrian in this section of the draw you find Juan Martin del Potro, but there's not much in his recent history to suggest that he's ready for a deep run in New York. Roberta Bautista-Agut is another high seed but he is active in Winston-Salem this week still and may be tired in the early going of the US Open. Furthermore, the Spaniard has never actually made a quarterfinal at a major before.
In short, if Federer can get to the quarters in good physical condition he should advance to the semifinals. The US Open starts on Monday with the order of play for that day still pending.
