The 2016 NFL season is almost upon up and fantasy Football is close to a return. The preseason will start tomorrow and we will get a solid look at some of the players who can win you fantasy leagues next year. One of those players could be Arian Foster, who is quickly ascending draft boards as his expected fantasy value rises.

Average draft position

To do this analysis, I will be using the ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator. This site does fan driven mock drafts and is generally a good indication of the value of players. There is one caveat. In these drafts, you need 3 wide receivers and just two running backs.

About 3 weeks ago, Foster's ADP was around 85-90. After he was signed by the Dolphins, his ADP started to gradually rise. Today, Foster has risen all the way up to the 54th slot, ahead of starters like Jonathan Stewart and Ryan Matthews. But his value remains undercut in the ESPN rankings, where he is ranked just 62nd out of 300 players. Matthew Berry actually ranks him below fellow Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi, one of the risks associated with drafting Foster.


There are a ton of risks associated with drafting a player like Arian Foster. First, he's constantly injured. Foster hasn't played a full season since 2012 and consistently misses game. Now that Foster is 29-years-old he is more injury prone than ever before.

If you do take a chance on Foster, be prepared to see himmiss at least a few games with injuries.

The second risk comes in the form of Jay Ajayi. Head coach Adam Gase has stood behind Ajayi for a majority of the year and even declared him "the man" at one point. But that was before the Dolphins chose to sign Arian Foster.

But that doesn't mean Foster won't have to earn a starting position.That means you will likely have to select both Dolphins running backs to make the pick worth it. In this way, one canacquire at least one fantasy starter on the Dolphins.

The third risk is the Dolphins offensive line. The Dolphins did a lot to improve it in the offseason, but it is still constantly destroyed in practice.

Ryan Tannehill also loves to throw the ball, something that limited Lamar Miller's value significantly when he was the starter there.

Should you still draft him?

Arian Foster's upside is too high to ignore. The number of risks associated with his precarious position make me wary, but it's hard to stay away from the guy. Remember, Foster had 15 touchdowns and 1400 yards in 2012. That would be aninsane amount for a player that is going in the fifth round right now. If Foster can stay healthy, you will definitely get a positive return on investment in the 2016 fantasy season.

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