There hasyet to be a national poll accurately depicting how badly the electorate wants Campaign 2016 to end on November 8. It’s a sure bet that most Americans have pretty much had it up to here. And adding to the nation’s collective exasperation are the numerous, highly conflicting, and ever-undulating polling trends from many polling organizations. They are giving us a case of what can best be described as the polldrums.

The polldrums could soon be a thing of the past

The polldrums are now sweeping the electorate, driving everyone into a state of political exhaustion. Americans want know what is accurate and who to believe, but in the current climate, that is difficult (if not impossible) to achieve.

But all that is about to change. A new technique that uses open-source polling methods is coming down the pike, and it could spell relief in future elections. Long on statistical reliability and short on the vagaries of individual polling firm bias, the “Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting” statistical model by Drew Linzer, as reported in the November 1st online edition of Slate magagine (, is out of the gate and rolling full steam down the road to polling sanity. Dr. Lizer first published the results of his research in 2013 in theJournal of the American Statistical Association.

Polldrums make you compare apples andoranges

Only a few among us with the polldrums will truly comprehend the open-sourced and reproducible formula published for all to use and even manipulate.

So it will be up to television, print, and online media (and/or informed citizens) to once again present and explain the results. Using this polling model as a basis for discussion, at least they will be talking not apples and oranges but rather apples and apples. And according to writer Andrew Gelman, the Lizer approach and others to come are “following the scientific push toward transparency, and they’ll put everything else out of business.”

So, who will you rely on to give accurate election forecasting?

You could rely on Professor Allan Lichtmanif you're looking for popular vote stats. Or your could rely on skewed data from shock polls. But our presidents are chosen by states, not popular vote, so ifHillary Clinton wins close to 325 electoral voteson November 8, six excruciating days away, thatshouldabout cover it.

After that, good riddance to the polldrums!

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