The Tax Foundation has offered an analysis of the tax simplification plan proposed by the House Republicans. The study finds that the program, which would allow most people to fill out their taxes on a postcard, would lose revenue, but would have great benefit to the economic health of the United States.

The tax plan would lose $2.4 trillion in revenue over ten years. But when one takes the increased revenue due to enhanced economic growth, the loss is only $191 billion over the next decade.

The tax bill, if signed into law, would create 1.7 million jobs, increase economic growth by 9.1 percent, and increase wages by 7.7 percent.

The House Republican proposal would lower tax rates, eliminate most deductions and credits, and eliminate gift and estate taxes. The bill reduces the corporate tax rate to 20 percent to bring it more in line with the rest of the world. Besides spurring economic growth, the tax plan broadens the tax base, capturing more revenue.

The benefits of the tax plan matter less than the politics surrounding it. The proposal or something like it will pass next year only if the Republicans keep both houses of Congress and if they capture the White House.

Hillary Clinton, if elected president, would certainly veto any kind of tax reform that reaches her desk that does not involve substantial tax increases on corporations and higher income Americans. She and her fellow Democrats are genetically unable to support tax policies that lower the burden on Americans.

The other question that arises will down ballot Republicans be able to use the tax and other proposals, such as the one to reform health care reform, as a kind of “Contract for America” to argue for their retaining control of Congress no matter what the outcome of the presidential election.

Newt Gingrich, who is on the short list for Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate, captured Congress in 1994 with similar proposals. One utility for choosing Gingrich to run with Trump is that he is adroit at framing policy recommendations like tax simplification to make a political argument.

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