The question of which candidate for president, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, would be better for the economy and the future prospects of the Stock Market is uppermost on the minds of most Americans. The Brookings Institute released a study last week that said unambiguously that Donald Trump's presidency could tank global equity markets by as much as 15 percent, translating into losses for 401ks and retirement accounts not seen since the end of the George W. Bush presidency. It was during that presidency that the stock market had a negative return over eight years of 5.5 percent annually.
The precipitous drop at the end of his presidency continued for two more months into the Obama presidency.
Could an 'American Brexit' happen here? Not likely
Some are calling a Trump victory as "America's Brexit." His winning, says CNNMoney.com, would shock the markets, much in the same way that the "surprise June referendum" in the U.K. crashed that market on the heels of a 52 percent "Brexit" victory to leave the European Union.
A Trump victory would be "America's Brexit." But what about if Clinton wins?https://t.co/RGUv2bcAyY
— CNNMoney (@CNNMoney) October 24, 2016
One reason for the shock of a Trump victory is the stock market's aversion to change and unpredictability. One could argue that Trump is the "King of Unpredictability" and that the markets would be extremely volatile during his administration, should he win.
Hillary Clinton is considered a more stable, even boring personality, and the stock market is suited to such a person. Trump's anti-trade and seal off all the border doctrine also scares Wall Street, which thrives on world markets.
How financial markets reacted to the first presidential debate: https://t.co/5Ke51cN8Sq pic.twitter.com/PVHNa104n1
— Brookings (@BrookingsInst) October 24, 2016
'Obama Stock Market Rally' would stop under Trump
On President Obama's Inauguration Day, the Dow sat at 7,949.09 but bottomed on March 9, 2009, at 6,547.05, which was the lowest level since 1997.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq bottomed between those dates. However, the "Obama Stock Market Rally" started on March 9, 2009, and has not looked back since.
Ironically, there is some fear that the Democrats will not only win the White House, but also the U.S. Senate and House. That would not be a scenario that Wall Street would embrace. Especially the part about winning back the House and one-party control of the federal government.
