Voters have granted favor to Brexit, which will mean the British exit from the European Union. The exact terms of the departure and exactly what will happen, which will affect the British economy immigration policy, will become clearer in the upcoming months, but the process of Britain leaving might takes years to happen.
It could take years
Now, it is entirely possible for the Brexit vote to be overturned or blocked, as the vote is not considered legally binding. However, such action is considered unlikely, as the Brexit vote has the backing of a majority, and going against it would be considered “political suicide.”
The Treaty on European Union, through its Article 50, demands that Britain make the European Union aware of its potential withdrawal with a formal notification, and then work together to develop an agreement. The recent Brexit vote does not take the place of the formal notification, which could take place in the upcoming days, as a European Union summit will take place towards the end of June, but it is expected that British officials will likely delay the measure for a few months. Once invoking the formal Article 50 notification, Britain will then have a two-year window to discuss the formal agreement, which will determine things such as tariffs and migration policies.
What the Brexit outcome could mean
The Brexit outcome has already made its mark on Britain’s politics, as it is believed to have been what influenced British Prime Minister David Cameron’s announcement to resign by October. Reportedly, Cameron was against a Brexit vote in the first place, and was not in favor of exiting the European Union. While Cameron is expected to be supplanted by Boris Johnson, there is speculation that the move may just lead to early elections.
As the European Union serves as Britain’s largest trading partner, there is also speculation that this could lead to a recession for the United Kingdom. For starters, industries will have to go through a multitude of new regulations to go forward with foreign trade, and there is also concern over what possible trade agreement the European Union is willing to make. According to estimates, it is expected that Britain’s economy will decrease somewhere between 3.8 and 7.5 percent by 2030.
While it is possible for the upcoming agreements to allow free movement, there is also concern over what will happen for migrants. As members of the European Union, beforehand, Britons had the right to live and work throughout the European Union, and vice-versa. Upon leaving the European Union, however, it is unclear if these rights will still stand, British immigrants may face deportation.
Finally, there is speculation that this could lead to a breakup of the United Kingdom, according to critics. As the United Kingdom is comprised of four territories (England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland), there is concern over the fact that there may be disagreement over the decision to leave the European Union. For example, polls show that a majority in Scotland is in favor of staying within the European Union. According to critics, it is possible that this decision may lead to the four “countries” that comprise the United Kingdom pushing for independence themselves in the years to come. #World Politics