The release of the 2017 Us Open draw for men's singles is imminent as it will take place on Friday in New York. Ahead of the draw, the favorites for the tournament are Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. After the draw is released that probably won't change much, however, the 2017 US Open is one where draw luck could be a big deal for some players. There are some dangerous low seeds in the tournament and even some dangerous potential qualifiers. The last thing that one of the betting favorites will want to see in the first round is a player like Denis Shapovalov, Leonardo Mayer, or Ivo Karlovic.

Federer has the shortest odds

Federer is the player with the shortest odds as of Friday, ahead of the draw. The 5-time champion at the event simply can never be ignored, even despite not winning Montreal and despite not playing in Cincinnati. Federer is priced at +150 (ie. 3 to 2) with Marathon Bet. Those odds, if you converted them into an implied percentage, would mean that Federer has a 40 percent chance of winning the tournament. That conversion is just food for thought however as betting odds aren't mathematically sound and simply give some insight into public opinion. Here's a look at the rest of the favorites, starting with first-favorite Federer and proceeding to 8th-favorite Dominic Thiem.

  • Roger Federer +150 (Marathon Bet)
  • Rafael Nadal +275 (William Hill)
  • Alexander Zverev +800 (BetVictor)
  • Andy Murray +900 (888Sport)
  • Nick Kyrgios +1800 (William Hill)
  • Grigor Dimitrov +2000 (William Hill)
  • Marin Cilic +2000 (888Sport)
  • Dominic Thiem +2500 (BetVictor)

There's something wrong with everyone

When you look at the favorites for the 2017 US Open with a touch of skepticism, it's not hard to find something wrong with basically everyone.

Federer hasn't won the US Open since 2008 and he actually seemed pessimistic about his chances a short time ago. The tweaked back from Montreal probably won't be an issue, but this is still a 36-year old player that could fall from grace any time. If he bumped into physical problems with his draw in Montreal, a best-of-three-set tournament, it stands to reason that he could bump into problems in New York as well.

With Rafael Nadal, the big question is where are the titles on the cement? You have to go back ages to find a hard-court title for Rafa with his last coming at Doha in 2014. Even clay-courter Dominic Thiem has a hard-court title since then. Nadal has not been a major factor in any tournament after the clay-court season. If (when?) he loses in New York it will surely be presented as a stunning upset. However, those in the know might see an over-rated player at +275 (ie. implies about a 27 percent chance of winning).

Zverev unproven in majors

Third-favorite Alexander Zverev is too easy to criticize: he's never done anything in a major. He held up for titles in Washington and Montreal and that speaks well to his chances.

However having never won a middle-round match in a Grand Slam draw, who knows what's Zverev closing game is going to be like in a major? Many think that we're about to find out, but don't be surprised if there's some growing pains for the German.

Fourth-favorite Andy Murray is easy to criticize too. He hasn't played in a hard-court match since way back in the spring in the USA. Furthermore, his preparations for the US Open have been on the practice courts only. With a hip injury that Tim Henman said should make him sit out the whole season, why not raise an eyebrow at Murray? It's not like he's won the US Open more than one time and it's been over a year since he's even seen a Grand Slam semifinal.

Nick Kyrgios could lose for so many reasons. Injury problems bother this player a lot and then there's the mental side of things. Who knows when he's going to implode or have some kind of temper meltdown? Even if his head and body hold up there's still a matter of winning matches. He's capable of winning the tournament, but nothing about him makes him stand out from the other players that are capable as well. You can talk of Murray not making a semi in over a year but Kyrgios has no semis in his career yet. While the Aussie is only 22 years old, the semis is only the semis (ie. it's not like it's a super-high bar to clear).

Dimitrov more in the tournament than assumed?

Grigor Dimitrov is a player that is under-rated heading into the draw.

The champion from Cincinnati may be sensing weakness right now on tour and that might mean he will try to test the waters again to see if his best is now good enough to get a Grand Slam tile. Dimitrov has been deep in Grand Slams before, including at the Aussie this year. Having played Nadal to a five setter there, Dimitrov was clearly in that tournament and he's clearly more talented than at least Kyrgios.

Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem are easy to criticize as well. Cilic has not played a match since Wimbledon and the former US Open champ is impossible to gauge right now in terms of where his tennis playing level is. With Thiem, the Austrian is only a clay-courter at this point in his career.

There's no hard-court result in his entire professional career thus far that suggests that he can win the US Open. For whatever he might end up doing on clay in the future, he's caught on the wrong surface in New York.

Of course, when there's something wrong with everyone, that doesn't mean that no one will win. What it does mean is that the top favorites could very well be over-rated. Nadal and Federer might have more like 15 percent of the share of the market each instead of the short odds that they are priced at. The matters will be settled on the court with the draw to be released and the upcoming event subject to further conjecture later on Friday.
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