A colleague thinks Trump has a one in four chance of being impeached. I would say the odds are even that he will #Leave #Office, but he will not go because of an impeachment. Before that happens, he will be gone. Why is this so? Why are the odds so good? There are many reasons.

History

First, there is history. I have never seen applied to Trump the term escape artist but that is what he is. His history since his childhood days as a wise guy rich kid in Queens has involved artful exits from any situation where he perceived that he would be physically hurt. It is physical fear that drives Trump to distraction, whether it is confronting mosquitos or stairs.

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Pride

Trump is proud of the fact that he has succeeded by messing people over and bending rules and even by getting help from banks and creditors because he was too big or too conspicuous to fail. I honestly think the deepest sense of pride Trump possesses is that he gets by. This will come into play when he leaves. He will walk out unrepentant, head high, and declare that he has won, and blame Obama. Literally. Wait and see.

Money and the family

We will get to Russia. But money and the family are essential for Trump and when the political roof collapses and the writing is on the wall he will want to make a deal. And the deal will be that he is pardoned (remember Nixon) and that he can go to his favorite places, there are only two, and keep his revenue moving toward him.

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Trump will never be without the illusion that he is being victimized and that he always does the right thing. It is clear that among the next big stories will be a more thorough look at the actual mega-business the Trump boys are now running. This will build removal pressure big time.

The tax matter

The matter of tax returns may end up a bargaining chip when Trump is fighting to stay in office but it will also play a part in the massive wave of censure that will be the actual cause of his having to leave office. The entirely impeachment-free method outlined at the tweet link above will not be employed. Polls and public pressure will be enough. The importance of the tax matter is that it is a widely known and useful reason to be done with him.

The Russia matter

The Russia issue is almost ripe enough to serve as the likely cause of Trump removal. The illegal coverup that has always been the necessary element is becoming common knowledge. Finally, though, even the tax and Russia red flags will not precipitate the end,

The Finish

We do not know the precipitating cause.The probability is that it will be Trump who decides to leave. He will see himself going up the escalator in Trump Tower. It will be operatic. That image will be the precipitating cause. #President Trump