When a political party has a good majority in the House and is unable to pass what its members consider a vital piece of legislation the failure of the Party is evident. While any proposed law is subject to amendments and agreements to ensure its passage the case of the #Aca reveals much more; a Party that now has serious difficulties in understanding what it stands for led by a President who has no knowledge of the legislative and political process.

Campaign promise

The Affordable Care Act was undoubtedly the legislation by President Barack Obama most hated by the Republicans. For this reason its repeal formed an important part of #Donald Trump ’s agenda during his successful presidential campaign and a promise that was repeated constantly at rallies and interviews.

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Thus as soon as he was in Office President Trump almost immediately signed an order beginning the process of repeal but which did not begin explaining what would be the replacement that was also promised.

Just as quickly public protests erupted as citizens began to understand that they risked either big increases in their premiums or the loss of their health care. Such were the protests that Republican politicians finally understand that they were at risk of losing their seats at next year’s midterms.

Last week with #President Trump demanding action House Republican leader Paul Ryan presented a proposal for the replacement. This split the Party between those who considered it too drastic and those who considered it not drastic enough.

The costs

The Congressional Budget Office report on the Bill that stated that within ten years 24 million citizens would lose their health insurance raised the level of protests and also the divisions within the Party.

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On Thursday the New York Times published a study that detailed the political costs of the proposed law and named Republican members who would lose their seats as a result.

Yesterday Congress should have voted Ryan’s proposed law but this was delayed as it became ever more obvious that the Bill seriously risked defeat. The decision angered President Trump who is now demanding the Bill be presented for vote today.

Divided

The country is now seeing the first real and open battle not only between the Oval Office and its Party but also between the various factions of the Party.

President Trump has now threatened to walk away from the promise if the Bill is defeated in the House and leave the ACA intact. While this is a part of his famous tactics on making a deal the tactic may well backfire on him in the long term as business deals are not the same as political negotiations.

Ultimately he will have to face the fact that the stakes are not in one piece of legislation or a promise kept. The Republicans who oppose the proposed law are divided by the details of the law yet they also share a common fear; that of losing their seats.

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Future

House Leader #Paul Ryan will now attempt to gather in his recalcitrant colleagues but he knows that the final decision may well be not to risk a vote but losing the majorities in both Houses and thus the real risk of the Oval Office being completely thwarted in the second half of its term. This would also mean the loss of any nominations for the Supreme Court in at least the near future.

The decision is now in the hands of the Republicans who will decide the fate of the Bill. In the end enough may decide to side with the Oval Office and approve the proposed law but at what cost to the Party?

In any case the internal divisions are evident and may widen even more in the foreseeable future as more revelations rise up in regards to the investigations into the Russian hacking and inevitably when the two Houses have to decide the fate of the other controversial pieces of legislation beginning with the proposed Budget and the Mexican wall.

The only question we can now ask is; if the ACA is approved what will be the piece of legislation on which the worried Republicans will finally make a stand?