The conventional wisdom is that Hispanic Americans are turning out in droves to vote against Donald Trump. Trump has taken a hard line against illegal immigration, even going so far as to suggest that many illegals are murderers and rapists. Most polling data backs up this supposition. On the other hand, a couple of pieces in the Washington Examiner suggests that possibility that more Hispanics will vote for Trump than is generally believed.
First, from Michael Barone, citing the Los Angeles/USC Poll, noted findings that 47 percent of Hispanics support Hillary Clinton and 44 percent support Donald Trump. No other poll shows these results and Barone, who is a master political analyst, doubts that they are accurate. But if they are, then large Hispanic turnouts in Florida and Nevada will not be as helpful for Hillary as they seem.
Second, and perhaps an explanation for the above factoid, the Pulse Opinion Research organization found that 51 percent of Hispanics believe that the government has not enforced immigration laws sufficiently. Moreover, 49 percent support deporting illegal immigrants, a policy favored by Trump.
Could it be that Hispanic Americans are not monolithic, single issue voters who go in lockstep on the illegal immigration issue? Most people are worried about the economy at home and terrorism abroad. Hispanics are not immune to the ravages of Obamacare nor do they regard Hillary Clinton’s corruption as any less onerous as anyone else.
As of this writing, no one knows whether these two theories are going to translate into election results. If they do, then election night is going to be a bad one for Hillary Clinton. It will also dampen the idea that demographics, the increase in Hispanic population in America, is going to translate into Democratic dominance.
If Hispanic Americans are not going to save the Democratic Party from itself, then it is going to have to do some soul searching about what it should be prepared to do if it wants to win. In the 1990s, Bill Clinton went hard to the center, being neither too far left nor too far right. Since then Democrats have gone hard left and have suffered in congressional elections if not control of the presidency. If they lose all because they can’t rely on Hispanic voters, then the Democrats will have to revisit Clinton’s strategy if they want to avoid a lengthy period in the wilderness. #Election 2016