#Donald Trump is in a dicey position. Before the first debate, the 2016 Election looked like it could go either way. He was gaining ground after the Associated Press published a few stories about the Clinton Foundation, some focusing more on "raising questions" rather than answering them, along with a health scare on Hillary Clinton's part. Then the debate happened and his poll numbers started collapsing. The racy tape with Billy Bush has only made it worse

Where Trump is now

As of now, 538 has Trump at 16.5% odds  and polls have him losing on average of 6 or 7 points. Some even have him losing by double digits. While many skeptics would say that anything could happen between now and election day there are a few things worth noting. First of all, the only candidate to ever come back from being down this far this late in the game is Harry Truman. Secondly, 538 has a scary accuracy record, having correctly predicted multiple elections.

The other matter is that while he has the traditional Republican base of white Evangelicals locked up, he's done little to broaden his appeal. Much of what he has done has been perceived as rather insulting. To make things even worse, all his margins are much lower than Mitt Romney's were in 2012, even among the categories he leads in.

Trump's Electoral College math is worse and other bad signs loom

Trump manages to lead in the Heartland and much of the deep South, places he was expected to win. However, the real problems are places like Florida and North Carolina. Both states, initially expected to go Republican, have been trending bluer. The troubles with the former are possibly due in no small part to allegations that Trump subverted the Cuban Embargo. As Al Gore learned in 2000 after the mess with Elian Gonzales, getting on the bad side of the Cuban community is not something you want to do if you want to win Florida..

To make matters worse, the Republican National Committee, is pulling out of Trump's campaign. Trump was relying on them for much of his ground game operation. With early voting only days away in some states, not having a good ground game does not bode well for him. Unless he changes something drastically, the Trump Train will wreck. His chances to make those changes get smaller by the day. #Election 2016 #Democrats vs Republicans