Several weeks ago, just ahead of the 2016 US Open for tennis, I wrote an article that compared two unrelated things: Rafael Nadal's chances of winning in Flushing Meadows and Donald Trump's chances of winning the White House. In that article I used betting odds as food for thought and as a form of measurement of probability, albeit one that isn't foolproof. I showed that Trump, according to sportsbook odds, had a better chance of winning the White House than Nadal had of winning the final Grand Slam tournament of the 2016 season.
To recap the odds, at the time of the original article (August 31st) Trump was priced as a 11/4 underdog to win the upcoming election (bet365). He is now priced at 7/2 with the same firm, odds that have lengthened a little.
Hillary Clinton even larger favorite now
Hillary Clinton, back in late August, was a 2/7 favorite. As of October 11th, 2016 she is looking much stronger. The same sportsbook now has the Democractic Party's candidate at 1/5, odds that suggest an 83.3% chance of her winning the upcoming election.
Things have generally been in Clinton's favor when it comes to betting odds since the markets opened. However, what has swayed things her way so strongly of late is a difficult question to answer. Betting odds aren't mathematically sound and while they reflect public opinion to a degree they are also subjective in nature.
John Priesta with Blasting News states in his recent article that women and non-whites are supportive of Clinton. However, perhaps Trump's often outlandish statements have played a role in making Americans less apolitical.
Politics more popular than NFL football?
One interesting force to note when it comes to American politics is that the presidential election is attracting a lot of attention. On October 10th, Brandon Katz, a contributor at Forbes.com, wrote an interesting article.
According to Katz the NFL's Sunday-night game between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers wasn't exactly a hit for ratings. The game didn't just lose out to the presidential debate in terms of ratings, but according to the article at Forbes the NFL game got "crushed."
For the NFL, that is a problem however it could be viewed as positive for those that have long been disappointed with the political apathy of the average citizen in the USA. An NFL football game between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers loses in the ratings to politics? For better worse, it could be taken as a sign of that Joe Public, long known for his political indifference, feels that there are issues more important than being an arm-chair quarterback. #HillaryClinton #DonaldTrump #BettingOdds