Long term aging trend is practically immovable
Analyzed from a strictly economic perspective, demography is not only about predicting a continued increase in world population, something that emerges from the comparison of global mortality but analyzing the different potentials of population areas (the European population ages, while Asian or African grows) to examine the costs and benefits of population shifts and finally the economic effects of aging.
And what we know today, the significant aging of the population comes from a decrease in the birth rate in restricted areas, particularly in the countries with the highest degree of comfort (having children has a cost in money, time, and comfort). Along with this, a fall in the death rate is given. In short, this aging when significant (the percentage of people over 64 years on the total world population will rise from 9% today to 19% in 2050), will mean less inflation and more social spending.
The long term demographic trend is virtually unshakable, because, even if it could increase the birth rate in the areas where it has sunk, the determining factor in the curve is the increase in life expectancy; and that factor is virtually unstoppable. Unless the continuous and exponential population growth is upset with a serious crisis of resources that cannot be compensated with the progress of technology. A case of Malthusianism comes later. The economy continues this gloomy background of dismal science discovered by Thomas Carlyle.
The fact is that the aging population required to produce significant corrections in economic policy. It is no longer possible to sustain a public pension system on the view that current workers are employed, they bear the perceptions of today's pensioners.
The variable has to do with the aging population, and is the difference between the legal retirement date and the time of death who receives the benefit. As this period is widening due to increased life expectancy, the system tends to move toward bankruptcy if unpopular or costly decisions are taken. The first category was for raising the retirement age, which in some cases is a penalty for the workers; the second, integrated into the budgets of the cost of pensions.
As can be seen, the aging of the population says a lot about the virtues of #Health but complicates economic policies, intended for other population pyramids. In any case, the political adaptation must start now.